Jesper Ceesay
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jesper Ceesay's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-1.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-2.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.53x the positional average in the league (2138 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 83
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 5.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €985k vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -5% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2138 (70% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 6 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1139
- Opponent strength
- 1290
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €749k – €2.6M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +32% (IQR -38% to +108%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 35 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–144%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 69%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Antalyaspor | Super Lig | DM | 31 | 2138 | 70% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1290 | 1139 | 0.40 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Obinna Nwobodo Super Lig · 2021 | 25 | €1.3M | €2.5M | rose |
| Karim Hafez Super Lig · 2022 | 26 | €1.0M | €600k | fell |
| Perry Kitchen Superliga · 2018 | 26 | €750k | €475k | fell |
| Melle Meulensteen Eredivisie · 2024 | 25 | €900k | €2.5M | rose |
| Berat Özdemir Super Lig · 2020 | 22 | €1.8M | €4.7M | rose |
| Ilya Zhigulev Premier Liga · 2021 | 25 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
| Dálcio Super League 1 · 2021 | 25 | €400k | €700k | rose |
| Christophe Diandy Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 24 | €800k | €800k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Aug 2025 | Norrköping | Antalyaspor | €450k | €800k |
| 21 Mar 2023 | AIK | Norrköping | Unknown | €250k |
| 8 Jan 2022 | Brommapojkarna | AIK | €100k | Data unavailable |
| 4 Mar 2020 | IF Bromma U19 | Brommapojkarna | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2018 | IF Bromma U17 | IF Bromma U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2017 | Bromma Jgd. | IF Bromma U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2007 | Unknown | Bromma Jgd. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.