Henry Lawrence
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Henry Lawrence's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-2.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.1M-5.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.5M-5.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 13
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 31.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €3.5M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -38% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1668 (62% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.05
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.08
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 31 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1341
- Opponent strength
- 1376
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.5M – €5.0M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 15 pts; role change CB -> RB; relative output up 56% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -23% (IQR -49% to -6%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1668 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 76 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 67%–160%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Standard Liège | Jupiler Pro League | RB | 21 | 1668 | 62% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 1376 | 1341 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | Standard Liège | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 26 | 2077 | 77% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1381 | 1317 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Europe Play Offs | Standard Liège | 9 | 765 | 1 | 1 | 1371 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Egor Sorokin Premier Liga · 2020 | 25 | €3.0M | €2.5M | flat |
| Luis Pedro Cavanda Super Lig · 2016 | 25 | €3.8M | €1.5M | fell |
| Reggie Cannon Liga Portugal · 2022 | 24 | €4.0M | €2.2M | fell |
| Ionuț Nedelcearu Premier Liga · 2020 | 24 | €3.2M | €1.0M | fell |
| Modibo Sagnan Eredivisie · 2023 | 24 | €3.0M | €3.0M | flat |
| Aziz Behich Super Lig · 2016 | 26 | €3.0M | €2.8M | flat |
| Jere Uronen Jupiler Pro League · 2020 | 26 | €2.8M | €2.0M | fell |
| Milad Mohammadi Premier Liga · 2018 | 25 | €2.8M | €2.8M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | SL16 FC | Standard Liège | Unknown | €400k |
| 7 Aug 2023 | Chelsea U21 | SL16 FC | Free / loan | €600k |
| 31 May 2023 | MK Dons | Chelsea U21 | Free / loan | €600k |
| 22 Jul 2022 | Chelsea U21 | MK Dons | Free / loan | €800k |
| 31 May 2022 | AFC Wimbledon | Chelsea U23 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 26 Jul 2021 | Chelsea U23 | AFC Wimbledon | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Chelsea U18 | Chelsea U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Chelsea Youth | Chelsea U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.