
Anthony Elanga
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Anthony Elanga's performance-implied value at EUR 22.9M-46.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 20.5M-41.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 16.8M-35.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.47x the positional average in the league (1313 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 24
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 89.1th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €27.8M vs market €32.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -30% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1313 (38% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.07
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.18
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 89 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1631
- Opponent strength
- 1602
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €16.8M – €35.9M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 35 pts; changed club; relative output down 63% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -10% (IQR -34% to +42%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1313 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Newcastle United | Premier League | RW | 32 | 1313 | 38% | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.18 | 1602 | 1631 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | RW | 38 | 2510 | 73% | 6 | 11 | 0.61 | 0.55 | 1567 | 1573 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | RW | 36 | 2434 | 71% | 5 | 9 | 0.52 | 0.58 | 1580 | 1428 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Manchester United | Premier League | LW | 16 | 421 | 12% | 0 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.30 | 1543 | 1699 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Manchester United | Premier League | RW | 21 | 1214 | 35% | 2 | 2 | 0.30 | 0.27 | 1573 | 1609 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Manchester United | Premier League | LW | 2 | 156 | 5% | 1 | 0 | 0.58 | 0.30 | 1551 | 1741 | 1.19 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Newcastle United | 10 | 478 | 2 | 1 | 1700 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Sweden | 3 | 126 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Newcastle United | 2 | 89 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Nottingham Forest | 4 | 231 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Nottingham Forest | 2 | 154 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Manchester United | 5 | 132 | 0 | 0 | 1555 |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Manchester United | 1 | 17 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester United | 3 | 172 | 1 | 0 | 1618 |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Manchester United | 2 | 43 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antony Premier League · 2024 | 24 | €25.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Memphis Depay Premier League · 2016 | 22 | €25.0M | €45.0M | rose |
| Timo Werner Premier League · 2022 | 26 | €35.0M | €17.0M | fell |
| Iker Muniain Laliga · 2016 | 24 | €15.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Alex Iwobi Premier League · 2020 | 24 | €25.5M | €18.0M | fell |
| Thomas Lemar Laliga · 2019 | 24 | €40.0M | €25.0M | fell |
| Ángel Correa Laliga · 2019 | 24 | €35.0M | €40.0M | flat |
| Mario Balotelli Premier League · 2015 | 25 | €11.0M | €15.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Jul 2025 | Nott'm Forest | Newcastle | €61.4M | €42.0M |
| 25 Jul 2023 | Man Utd | Nott'm Forest | €22.9M | €18.0M |
| 1 Jan 2022 | Man Utd U23 | Man Utd | Unknown | €4.0M |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Man Utd U18 | Man Utd U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Man Utd Youth | Man Utd U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Unknown | Man Utd Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Malmö FF Jgd. | Unknown | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2014 | IF Elfsborg Jgd | Malmö FF Jgd. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.