Anthony Elanga

24 yrs · Right winger (also LW) · Sweden
Newcastle United · Premier League · Foot: right · Height: 178 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: ModerateContract: until 30 Jun 2030
Market value
€32.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€20.5M – €41.3M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€22.9M – €46.6M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€16.8M – €35.9M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€18.5M – €26.1M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€20.5M – €41.3M
Model value (performance-implied)€22.9M – €46.6M
Projected value (24 months)€16.8M – €35.9M
Dashed line: current market value (€32.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Anthony Elanga's performance-implied value at EUR 22.9M-46.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 20.5M-41.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 16.8M-35.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.47x the positional average in the league (1313 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 24

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceHigh89.1th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral24.2 years
Acquisition costNeutralest. €27.8M vs market €32.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-30% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentModerate
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 1.3
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €55.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1313 (38% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.07
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.18
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
89 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
1.30 (rank 1)
Team strength (Elo)
1631
Opponent strength
1602
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Moderate
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€16.8M – €35.9M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 35 pts; changed club; relative output down 63% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -10% (IQR -34% to +42%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1313 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Newcastle UnitedPremier LeagueRW32131338%010.070.18160216311.30
2024/25Nottingham ForestPremier LeagueRW38251073%6110.610.55156715731.23
2023/24Nottingham ForestPremier LeagueRW36243471%590.520.58158014281.14
2022/23Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueLW1642112%010.210.30154316991.23
2021/22Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueRW21121435%220.300.27157316091.17
2020/21Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueLW21565%100.580.30155117411.19

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueNewcastle United10478211700
2025/26World CupSweden312620—
2025/26Fa CupNewcastle United28900—
2024/25Fa CupNottingham Forest423101—
2023/24Fa CupNottingham Forest215400—
2022/23Uefa Europa LeagueManchester United5132001555
2022/23Fa CupManchester United11700—
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueManchester United3172101618
2021/22Fa CupManchester United24300—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Antony
Premier League · 2024
24€25.0M€40.0Mrose
Memphis Depay
Premier League · 2016
22€25.0M€45.0Mrose
Timo Werner
Premier League · 2022
26€35.0M€17.0Mfell
Iker Muniain
Laliga · 2016
24€15.0M€10.0Mfell
Alex Iwobi
Premier League · 2020
24€25.5M€18.0Mfell
Thomas Lemar
Laliga · 2019
24€40.0M€25.0Mfell
Ángel Correa
Laliga · 2019
24€35.0M€40.0Mflat
Mario Balotelli
Premier League · 2015
25€11.0M€15.0Mrose

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
11 Jul 2025Nott'm ForestNewcastle€61.4M€42.0M
25 Jul 2023Man UtdNott'm Forest€22.9M€18.0M
1 Jan 2022Man Utd U23Man UtdUnknown€4.0M
1 Jul 2020Man Utd U18Man Utd U23UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2018Man Utd YouthMan Utd U18UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2015UnknownMan Utd YouthFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2014Malmö FF Jgd.UnknownUnknownData unavailable
1 Jan 2014IF Elfsborg JgdMalmö FF Jgd.UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.