Antony
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Antony's performance-implied value at EUR 16.3M-39.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 25.9M-45.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 19.2M-38.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.15x the positional average in the league (2460 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 16
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 89.9th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €35.7M vs market €40.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -35% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2460 (72% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.51
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.45
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 90 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1549
- Opponent strength
- 1496
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €19.2M – €38.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 28 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -8% (IQR -49% to +58%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | RW | 32 | 2460 | 72% | 8 | 6 | 0.51 | 0.45 | 1496 | 1549 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | RW | 17 | 1365 | 40% | 5 | 2 | 0.46 | 0.46 | 1518 | 1555 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Manchester United | Premier League | RW | 8 | 135 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 1508 | 1603 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Manchester United | Premier League | RW | 29 | 1323 | 39% | 1 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.19 | 1557 | 1594 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Manchester United | Premier League | RW | 25 | 1818 | 53% | 4 | 2 | 0.30 | 0.30 | 1579 | 1699 | 1.23 |
| 2022/23 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | RW | 2 | 180 | 6% | 1 | 2 | 1.50 | 0.22 | 1260 | 1593 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | RW | 23 | 1735 | 57% | 8 | 4 | 0.62 | 0.26 | 1341 | 1749 | 0.60 |
| 2020/21 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | RW | 32 | 1773 | 58% | 9 | 8 | 0.86 | 0.35 | 1353 | 1722 | 0.56 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Real Betis Balompié | 10 | 788 | 6 | 3 | 1482 |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Real Betis Balompié | 4 | 250 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Manchester United | 4 | 126 | 0 | 0 | 1598 |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Manchester United | 4 | 264 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester United | 4 | 233 | 0 | 0 | 1627 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Manchester United | 9 | 638 | 2 | 0 | 1534 |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Manchester United | 5 | 354 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Johan Cruijff Schaal | Ajax Amsterdam | 1 | 73 | 1 | 0 | 1641 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Ajax Amsterdam | 7 | 577 | 2 | 4 | 1633 |
| 2021/22 | Knvb Beker | Ajax Amsterdam | 3 | 225 | 2 | 2 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Ajax Amsterdam | 6 | 419 | 0 | 0 | 1597 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Ajax Amsterdam | 4 | 360 | 1 | 0 | 1644 |
| 2020/21 | Knvb Beker | Ajax Amsterdam | 4 | 320 | 0 | 2 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Omar Marmoush Bundesliga · 2024 | 25 | €22.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| Taiwo Awoniyi Bundesliga · 2022 | 25 | €20.0M | €28.0M | rose |
| Youssef En-Nesyri Laliga · 2024 | 27 | €20.0M | €17.0M | flat |
| Nico González Serie A · 2024 | 26 | €35.0M | €22.0M | fell |
| Gorka Guruzeta Laliga · 2024 | 28 | €18.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Rodrigo Laliga · 2018 | 27 | €40.0M | €40.0M | flat |
| Marcus Thuram Bundesliga · 2023 | 26 | €32.0M | €75.0M | rose |
| Mario Balotelli Ligue 1 · 2018 | 28 | €24.0M | €5.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sept 2025 | Man Utd | Real Betis | €22.0M | €35.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Real Betis | Man Utd | Free / loan | €35.0M |
| 25 Jan 2025 | Man Utd | Real Betis | Free / loan | €20.0M |
| 30 Aug 2022 | Ajax | Man Utd | €95.0M | €35.0M |
| 1 Jul 2020 | São Paulo | Ajax | €15.8M | €18.0M |
| 1 Jan 2019 | São Paulo U20 | São Paulo | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2018 | São Paulo U17 | São Paulo U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.