Ernest Muci
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ernest Muci's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-5.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 5.9M-12.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 6.0M-13.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.20x the positional average in the league (1860 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 56
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 48.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €8.4M vs market €11.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -20% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1860 (61% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.73
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.49
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 48 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1368
- Opponent strength
- 1269
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €6.0M – €13.7M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 20 pts; changed club; role change LW -> AM.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -33% (IQR -59% to +1%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 35 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–144%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 69%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Trabzonspor | Super Lig | AM | 26 | 1802 | 59% | 11 | 4 | 0.75 | 0.49 | 1269 | 1368 | 0.40 |
| 2025/26 | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | Super Lig | LW | 1 | 58 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.35 | 1234 | 1350 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | Super Lig | LW | 27 | 1335 | 41% | 4 | 3 | 0.47 | 0.40 | 1273 | 1340 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | Super Lig | AM | 13 | 1040 | 30% | 3 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.29 | 1300 | 1336 | 0.45 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | 3 | 149 | 0 | 0 | 1288 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | 2 | 117 | 0 | 0 | 1427 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | 6 | 428 | 1 | 1 | 1529 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | 2 | 43 | 0 | 0 | 1377 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Legia Warszawa | 6 | 164 | 2 | 0 | 1322 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jorge Carrascal Premier Liga · 2023 | 25 | €7.0M | €7.0M | flat |
| Rifat Zhemaletdinov Premier Liga · 2022 | 26 | €7.5M | €3.0M | fell |
| Can Bozdogan Eredivisie · 2024 | 23 | €4.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Alexandru Cicâldău Super Lig · 2022 | 25 | €7.5M | €3.0M | fell |
| Bryan Heynen Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 24 | €9.0M | €11.0M | rose |
| Anton Miranchuk Premier Liga · 2021 | 26 | €12.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Manu García Super League 1 · 2023 | 25 | €3.5M | €3.5M | flat |
| Salih Uçan Super Lig · 2021 | 27 | €4.6M | €4.7M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Besiktas | Trabzonspor | €8.5M | €11.0M |
| 30 Jun 2026 | Trabzonspor | Besiktas | Free / loan | €11.0M |
| 6 Sept 2025 | Besiktas | Trabzonspor | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 9 Feb 2024 | Legia Warszawa | Besiktas | €10.0M | €8.0M |
| 23 Feb 2021 | KF Tirana | Legia Warszawa | €500k | €525k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | KF Tirana U19 | KF Tirana | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 22 Sept 2017 | FK Dinamo U17 | KF Tirana U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.