Pape Habib Guèye
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Pape Habib Guèye's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.76x the positional average in the league (1552 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 47
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 19.4th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €808k vs market €1.2M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -34% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1552 (51% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.29
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.38
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 19 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1203
- Opponent strength
- 1265
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €469k – €1.6M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 18 pts; changed club; role change AM -> ST; relative output down 48% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -2% (IQR -25% to +23%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1552 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 79%–133%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 58%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kasimpasa | Super Lig | ST | 26 | 1552 | 51% | 5 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.38 | 1265 | 1203 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Aberdeen FC | Scottish Premiership | AM | 15 | 962 | 32% | 6 | 1 | 0.65 | 0.57 | 1214 | 1186 | 0.34 |
| 2023/24 | Aberdeen FC | Scottish Premiership | ST | 4 | 75 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 1191 | 1186 | 0.34 |
| 2023/24 | KV Kortrijk | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 1 | 7 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.07 | 1496 | 1187 | 0.63 |
| 2022/23 | KV Kortrijk | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 26 | 1203 | 39% | 3 | 1 | 0.30 | 0.49 | 1320 | 1209 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | KV Kortrijk | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 16 | 1013 | 33% | 5 | 1 | 0.53 | 0.56 | 1343 | 1208 | 0.49 |
| 2020/21 | KV Kortrijk | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 31 | 1768 | 58% | 5 | 4 | 0.46 | 0.49 | 1366 | 1260 | 0.55 |
| 2019/20 | KV Kortrijk | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 4 | 69 | 3% | 1 | 0 | 1.30 | 0.61 | 1384 | 1342 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Scottish Fa Cup | Aberdeen FC | 5 | 299 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Scottish Fa Cup | Aberdeen FC | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riad Bajic Super Lig · 2020 | 26 | €1.4M | €1.5M | flat |
| Anastasios Chatzigiovanis Super Lig · 2024 | 27 | €1.8M | €900k | fell |
| Nikolaos Kaltsas Super League 1 · 2017 | 27 | €700k | €600k | flat |
| Aleksandr Zuev Premier Liga · 2022 | 26 | €1.0M | €900k | flat |
| Kevin Rosero Super League 1 · 2023 | 25 | €600k | €800k | rose |
| Aminu Umar Super Lig · 2022 | 27 | €500k | €175k | fell |
| Oleg Kozhushko Premier Liga · 2023 | 25 | €500k | €600k | rose |
| Tyler Boyd Super Lig · 2022 | 28 | €700k | €1.2M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Aug 2025 | Aberdeen FC | Kasimpasa | Unknown | €1.2M |
| 23 Jul 2024 | Kristiansund BK | Aberdeen FC | Free / loan | €700k |
| 26 Feb 2024 | Aberdeen FC | Kristiansund BK | Free / loan | €550k |
| 29 Aug 2023 | KV Kortrijk | Aberdeen FC | €580k | €600k |
| 31 Jan 2020 | Aalesunds FK | KV Kortrijk | Unknown | €500k |
| 2 Apr 2018 | AF Darou Salam | Aalesunds FK | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.