Kosta Aleksic
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Kosta Aleksic's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.95x the positional average in the league (999 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 90
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 3.5th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €166k vs market €450k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -19% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 999 (43% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.27
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.48
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 4 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1182
- Opponent strength
- 1261
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €284k – €469k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR +0% to +16%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 999 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 19 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 99%–112%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 47%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Panetolikos Agrinio | Super League 1 | ST | 24 | 999 | 43% | 3 | 0 | 0.27 | 0.48 | 1261 | 1182 | 0.43 |
| 2023/24 | Panserraikos Serres | Super League 1 | ST | 24 | 1713 | 73% | 5 | 2 | 0.37 | 0.50 | 1241 | 1189 | 0.42 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | Panetolikos Agrinio | 4 | 349 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Kypello Elladas | Panserraikos Serres | 4 | 169 | 2 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Brandão Superliga · 2019 | 29 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Nikolaos Vergos Super League 1 · 2024 | 28 | €450k | €450k | flat |
| Panagiotis Moraitis Super League 1 · 2024 | 27 | €400k | €400k | flat |
| Nikolay Dimitrov Super League 1 · 2016 | 29 | €500k | €1.0M | rose |
| Jovan Kostovski Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 27 | €500k | €900k | rose |
| Volodymyr Odaryuk Premier Liga · 2023 | 29 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Roman Debelko Premier Liga · 2023 | 30 | €400k | €400k | flat |
| Giannis Pasas Super League 1 · 2017 | 27 | €400k | €250k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Jul 2025 | Igdir FK | Panetolikos | €250k | €450k |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Boluspor | Igdir FK | Free / loan | €450k |
| 15 Jan 2025 | Igdir FK | Boluspor | Free / loan | €550k |
| 11 Aug 2024 | Panserraikos | Igdir FK | Free / loan | €600k |
| 3 Aug 2023 | Iraklis | Panserraikos | Free / loan | €400k |
| 10 Jan 2022 | FC Sevan | Iraklis | Free / loan | €150k |
| 7 Sept 2021 | FK Indjija | FC Sevan | Free / loan | €150k |
| 23 Jul 2020 | Cukaricki | FK Indjija | Free / loan | €200k |
| 30 Jun 2020 | Napredak | Cukaricki | Free / loan | €200k |
| 7 Feb 2020 | Cukaricki | Napredak | Free / loan | €200k |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Becej 1918 | Cukaricki | Free / loan | €150k |
| 8 Feb 2019 | Cukaricki | Becej 1918 | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Becej 1918 | Cukaricki | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2017 | Vojvodina U19 | Becej 1918 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.