Sebastian Sebulonsen
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Sebastian Sebulonsen's performance-implied value at EUR 1.2M-4.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.6M-6.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.9M-6.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 47
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 56.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €4.2M vs market €5.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -25% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2505 (82% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.04
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 56 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1347
- Opponent strength
- 1502
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.9M – €6.9M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 16 pts; changed club; league level up (+228 Elo); role change RM -> RB; relative output down 76% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -32% (IQR -50% to -18%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | 1.FC Köln | Bundesliga | RB | 31 | 2505 | 82% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1502 | 1347 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | Bröndby IF | Superliga | RM | 18 | 1298 | 66% | 1 | 4 | 0.35 | 0.26 | 1322 | 1342 | 0.38 |
| 2023/24 | Bröndby IF | Superliga | RM | 6 | 213 | 11% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1237 | 1417 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | Bröndby IF | Superliga | RB | 9 | 491 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1310 | 1329 | 0.47 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Köln | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Oddset Pokalen | Bröndby IF | 6 | 313 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Bröndby IF | 4 | 311 | 0 | 2 | 1340 |
| 2023/24 | Oddset Pokalen | Bröndby IF | 2 | 88 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Bröndby IF | 4 | 346 | 0 | 0 | 1503 |
| 2022/23 | Oddset Pokalen | Bröndby IF | 1 | 39 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erhan Masovic Bundesliga · 2024 | 26 | €5.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Jerry Akaminko Super Lig · 2014 | 26 | €4.4M | €2.5M | fell |
| Papy Djilobodji Ligue 1 · 2015 | 27 | €6.5M | €5.0M | fell |
| Isak Hien Serie A · 2023 | 24 | €6.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Jean-Charles Castelletto Ligue 1 · 2023 | 28 | €3.5M | €3.5M | flat |
| Fabian Lustenberger Bundesliga · 2015 | 27 | €4.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Bartosz Bereszyński Serie A · 2020 | 28 | €6.5M | €4.0M | fell |
| Jean-Armel Kana-Biyik Ligue 1 · 2013 | 24 | €7.5M | €2.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Jul 2025 | Bröndby IF | 1.FC Köln | €2.5M | €2.5M |
| 14 Jul 2022 | Viking FK | Bröndby IF | €1.2M | €900k |
| 10 Jun 2021 | Mjøndalen | Viking FK | Free / loan | €200k |
| 12 May 2021 | Viking FK | Mjøndalen | Free / loan | €200k |
| 13 Jan 2020 | Sola FK | Viking FK | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2017 | Sola FK Youth | Sola FK | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.