Isak Hien
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Isak Hien's performance-implied value at EUR 7.6M-30.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 15.3M-26.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 7.9M-21.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 9
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 89.3th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €20.1M vs market €22.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -41% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1965 (57% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.05
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.04
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 89 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1588
- Opponent strength
- 1478
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €7.9M – €21.7M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-91 Elo); relative output up 183% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -33% (IQR -43% to -11%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Atalanta BC | Serie A | CB | 28 | 1965 | 57% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 1478 | 1588 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Atalanta BC | Serie A | CB | 30 | 2325 | 68% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1492 | 1679 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Atalanta BC | Serie A | CB | 16 | 930 | 27% | 0 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.06 | 1482 | 1709 | 0.98 |
| 2023/24 | Hellas Verona | Serie A | CB | 10 | 864 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1465 | 1381 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | Hellas Verona | Serie A | CB | 32 | 2607 | 76% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1468 | 1357 | 0.94 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Atalanta BC | 9 | 710 | 0 | 0 | 1692 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Sweden | 3 | 217 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Atalanta BC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Atalanta BC | 8 | 710 | 0 | 1 | 1640 |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Atalanta BC | 2 | 154 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Supercoppa Italiana | Atalanta BC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1833 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Super Cup | Atalanta BC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1881 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Atalanta BC | 6 | 495 | 0 | 0 | 1733 |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Atalanta BC | 4 | 243 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Hellas Verona | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Djurgårdens Idrottsförening | 6 | 540 | 1 | 0 | 1443 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sokratis Papastathopoulos Bundesliga · 2015 | 27 | €18.0M | €28.0M | rose |
| Alessandro Florenzi Serie A · 2020 | 29 | €16.0M | €5.5M | fell |
| Juan Foyth Laliga · 2023 | 25 | €25.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Matteo Darmian Premier League · 2016 | 27 | €15.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Valentin Rongier Ligue 1 · 2022 | 28 | €12.0M | €12.0M | flat |
| Vincent Kompany Premier League · 2013 | 27 | €35.0M | €30.0M | flat |
| Ruben Aguilar Ligue 1 · 2022 | 29 | €10.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Ignazio Abate Serie A · 2014 | 28 | €11.0M | €7.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Jan 2024 | Hellas Verona | Atalanta | €8.9M | €9.0M |
| 27 Aug 2022 | Djurgården | Hellas Verona | €4.6M | €1.0M |
| 30 Nov 2021 | Vasalunds IF | Djurgården | Free / loan | €25k |
| 30 Jul 2021 | Djurgården | Vasalunds IF | Free / loan | €25k |
| 1 Jan 2021 | Vasalunds IF | Djurgården | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Feb 2017 | Vasalund U17 | Vasalunds IF | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2016 | Djursholm U17 | Vasalund U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2015 | AIK Yth. | Djursholm U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.