Nicolai Remberg
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nicolai Remberg's performance-implied value at EUR 1.8M-6.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 5.3M-12.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 5.5M-14.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.98x the positional average in the league (2880 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 30
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 60.7th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €8.6M vs market €9.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -19% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2880 (94% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.09
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.12
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 61 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1380
- Opponent strength
- 1496
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €5.5M – €14.3M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 15 pts; changed club; team strength up (+84 Elo); relative output up 29% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -26% (IQR -41% to +44%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Hamburger SV | Bundesliga | DM | 32 | 2880 | 94% | 0 | 3 | 0.09 | 0.12 | 1496 | 1380 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | Holstein Kiel | Bundesliga | DM | 32 | 2412 | 79% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.10 | 1502 | 1296 | 0.94 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | Hamburger SV | 2 | 109 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | Holstein Kiel | 1 | 76 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angelo Fulgini Ligue 1 · 2022 | 26 | €12.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Abdoulaye Touré Ligue 1 · 2020 | 26 | €8.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Juraj Kucka Serie A · 2013 | 26 | €7.0M | €6.0M | flat |
| Marten de Roon Serie A · 2016 | 25 | €5.0M | €14.0M | rose |
| Diego Laxalt Serie A · 2017 | 24 | €7.5M | €12.0M | rose |
| Hiroshi Kiyotake Bundesliga · 2014 | 25 | €7.0M | €4.5M | fell |
| Michael Folorunsho Serie A · 2024 | 26 | €8.5M | €5.0M | fell |
| Adrien Thomasson Ligue 1 · 2020 | 27 | €6.5M | €9.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Holstein Kiel | Hamburg | €2.4M | €3.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Pr. Münster | Holstein Kiel | €120k | €350k |
| 29 Jul 2020 | Pr. Münster II | Pr. Münster | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Pr. Münster U19 | Pr. Münster II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | FCE Rheine U19 | Pr. Münster U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | E. Rheine U17 | FCE Rheine U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | E. Rheine Jgd. | E. Rheine U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | GW Rheine Jgd. | E. Rheine Jgd. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.