Frederik Rieper
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Frederik Rieper's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 74
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €607k vs market €850k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -10% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1980 (100% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.03
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 5 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1183
- Opponent strength
- 1267
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €462k – €1.4M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -7% (IQR -21% to +47%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 24 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 60%–139%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 71%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Fredericia | Superliga | CB | 22 | 1980 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1267 | 1183 | 0.47 |
| 2023/24 | Silkeborg IF | Superliga | CB | 2 | 180 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1332 | 1238 | 0.48 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Fredericia | 3 | 247 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Oddset Pokalen | Aarhus Fremad | 2 | 135 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Oddset Pokalen | Silkeborg IF | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tobias Salquist Superliga · 2022 | 27 | €700k | €1.0M | rose |
| Malte Kiilerich Superliga · 2023 | 28 | €400k | €400k | flat |
| Rens van Eijden Eredivisie · 2013 | 25 | €900k | €500k | fell |
| Mykhaylo Shershen Premier Liga · 2022 | 27 | €500k | €400k | fell |
| Simon Jakobsen Superliga · 2017 | 27 | €350k | €300k | flat |
| Sören Henriksen Superliga · 2018 | 26 | €400k | €300k | fell |
| Erdin Demir Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 26 | €500k | €800k | rose |
| Rodrigo Escoval Super League 1 · 2023 | 26 | €500k | €900k | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Silkeborg IF | FC Fredericia | Free / loan | €250k |
| 16 Jan 2024 | Aarhus Fremad | Silkeborg IF | €20k | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | IF Lyseng | Aarhus Fremad | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2020 | Hofstra Pride | IF Lyseng | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2019 | IF Lyseng | Hofstra Pride | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | IF Lyseng U19 | IF Lyseng | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 2 Aug 2016 | Vejle BK Youth | IF Lyseng U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.