Ilyas Chaira
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ilyas Chaira's performance-implied value at EUR 1.5M-8.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.9M-5.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.1M-6.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.25x the positional average in the league (2461 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 51
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 51.6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €3.6M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -8% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2461 (72% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.29
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.51
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 52 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1294
- Opponent strength
- 1503
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.1M – €6.9M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -41% (IQR -68% to -18%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Real Oviedo | Laliga | LW | 36 | 2461 | 72% | 6 | 2 | 0.29 | 0.51 | 1503 | 1294 | 0.95 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Real Oviedo | 1 | 21 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Okereke Serie A · 2023 | 26 | €4.0M | €2.2M | fell |
| Grégoire Defrel Serie A · 2015 | 24 | €6.0M | €9.0M | rose |
| Opa Nguette Ligue 1 · 2020 | 26 | €2.8M | €2.0M | fell |
| Aleksey Sapogov Premier Liga · 2013 | 25 | €2.0M | €50k | fell |
| Adama Niane Ligue 1 · 2018 | 25 | €3.0M | €800k | fell |
| Mikael Ishak Bundesliga · 2019 | 26 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Walid Cheddira Serie A · 2024 | 26 | €6.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Javi Puado Laliga · 2023 | 25 | €8.0M | €10.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Jul 2025 | Girona | Real Oviedo | €1.5M | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Real Oviedo | Girona | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 24 Aug 2024 | Girona | Real Oviedo | Free / loan | €1.6M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | CD Mirandés | Girona | Free / loan | €1.6M |
| 6 Jul 2023 | Girona | CD Mirandés | Free / loan | €400k |
| 30 Jun 2023 | San Fernando CD | Girona | Free / loan | €400k |
| 14 Jul 2022 | Girona | San Fernando CD | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Girona FC B | Girona | Unknown | €100k |
| 30 Jun 2022 | UE Costa Brava | Girona FC B | Free / loan | €100k |
| 21 Aug 2021 | Girona FC B | UE Costa Brava | Free / loan | €50k |
| 30 Jun 2021 | UD Ibiza | Girona FC B | Free / loan | €50k |
| 8 Sept 2020 | Girona FC B | UD Ibiza | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Girona U19 | Girona FC B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Girona FC U18 | Girona U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.