Couhaib Driouech
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Couhaib Driouech's performance-implied value at EUR 3.0M-6.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 5.3M-11.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.5M-11.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.84x the positional average in the league (946 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 30
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 53th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €7.7M vs market €7.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -13% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 946 (31% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.95
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.34
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 53 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1606
- Opponent strength
- 1258
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.5M – €11.8M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -24% (IQR -40% to +47%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 946 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 73%–122%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 61%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | LW | 29 | 946 | 31% | 4 | 6 | 0.95 | 0.34 | 1258 | 1606 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | LW | 15 | 259 | 8% | 2 | 1 | 1.04 | 0.24 | 1193 | 1632 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | Excelsior Rotterdam | Eredivisie | LW | 26 | 1939 | 63% | 6 | 6 | 0.56 | 0.69 | 1373 | 1142 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | Excelsior Rotterdam | Eredivisie | LW | 33 | 2351 | 77% | 3 | 3 | 0.23 | 0.40 | 1374 | 1197 | 0.58 |
| 2020/21 | SC Heerenveen | Eredivisie | RW | 5 | 112 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 1323 | 1271 | 0.56 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | PSV Eindhoven | 7 | 192 | 3 | 2 | 1661 |
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 123 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Johan Cruijff Schaal | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 62 | 0 | 0 | 1297 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | PSV Eindhoven | 5 | 151 | 1 | 0 | 1763 |
| 2024/25 | Johan Cruijff Schaal | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 26 | 0 | 1 | 1593 |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | Excelsior Rotterdam | 3 | 232 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | Excelsior Rotterdam | 2 | 78 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sead Haksabanovic Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 24 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Casper Tengstedt Liga Portugal · 2024 | 24 | €5.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Albian Ajeti Scottish Premiership · 2021 | 24 | €3.2M | €1.7M | fell |
| Reiss Nelson Eredivisie · 2022 | 23 | €6.5M | €15.0M | rose |
| Danilo Eredivisie · 2023 | 24 | €6.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| John Guidetti Scottish Premiership · 2015 | 23 | €3.5M | €8.0M | rose |
| Nicolás Castillo Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 22 | €3.0M | €2.5M | flat |
| Mohamed Elyounoussi Scottish Premiership · 2020 | 26 | €9.5M | €12.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Jul 2024 | Excelsior | PSV | €3.5M | €4.0M |
| 31 Aug 2021 | Heerenveen | Excelsior | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Heerenveen U19 | Heerenveen | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Heerenveen U17 | Heerenveen U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Heerenveen Yth | Heerenveen U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Stormvogels Jgd | Heerenveen Yth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.