Mohamed Bayo
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mohamed Bayo's performance-implied value at EUR 1.2M-5.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.3M-3.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.7M-4.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.39x the positional average in the league (2348 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 80
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 47.5th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.7M vs market €4.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -32% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2348 (77% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.69
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.71
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 48 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1167
- Opponent strength
- 1274
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.7M – €4.6M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 59 pts; changed club; team strength down (-359 Elo); league level down (-156 Elo); relative output up 73% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -20% (IQR -50% to +35%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 79%–133%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 58%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Gaziantep FK | Super Lig | ST | 29 | 2348 | 77% | 15 | 3 | 0.69 | 0.71 | 1274 | 1167 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | ST | 12 | 305 | 10% | 2 | 1 | 0.89 | 0.46 | 1464 | 1594 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | Royal Antwerp FC | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 6 | 248 | 9% | 0 | 1 | 0.36 | 0.38 | 1357 | 1442 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | Le Havre AC | Ligue 1 | ST | 22 | 1395 | 46% | 5 | 1 | 0.39 | 0.51 | 1477 | 1351 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | ST | 27 | 639 | 19% | 4 | 1 | 0.70 | 0.44 | 1397 | 1555 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | Clermont Foot 63 | Ligue 1 | ST | 32 | 2424 | 71% | 14 | 5 | 0.71 | 0.77 | 1413 | 1324 | 0.86 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | LOSC Lille | 3 | 138 | 0 | 0 | 1625 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | LOSC Lille | 2 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 1593 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Pohjanpalo Super Lig · 2022 | 28 | €2.5M | €3.5M | rose |
| Kaj Sierhuis Eredivisie · 2024 | 26 | €1.8M | €1.8M | flat |
| Olarenwaju Kayode Super Lig · 2020 | 27 | €2.4M | €3.2M | rose |
| Ali Sowe Super Lig · 2023 | 29 | €3.0M | €1.9M | fell |
| Yusuf Erdoğan Super Lig · 2021 | 29 | €1.8M | €475k | fell |
| Pedro Henrique Super Lig · 2020 | 30 | €1.2M | €2.0M | rose |
| David Pollet Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 26 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Denis Drăguș Super Lig · 2024 | 25 | €4.0M | €2.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Gaziantep FK | Lille | Free / loan | €4.5M |
| 31 Aug 2025 | Lille | Gaziantep FK | Free / loan | €2.8M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Royal Antwerp | Lille | Free / loan | €2.8M |
| 3 Feb 2025 | Lille | Royal Antwerp | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Le Havre AC | Lille | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 1 Sept 2023 | Lille | Le Havre AC | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 13 Jul 2022 | Clermont Foot | Lille | €14.0M | €12.0M |
| 30 Jun 2020 | USL Dunkerque | Clermont Foot | Free / loan | €200k |
| 22 Jan 2019 | Clermont Foot | USL Dunkerque | Free / loan | €200k |
| 10 Nov 2017 | Clermont B | Clermont Foot | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Clermont U19 | Clermont B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.