Mohammad Mohebi
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mohammad Mohebi's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.8M-3.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-2.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.87x the positional average in the league (1612 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 32
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 23.3th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.8M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -37% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1612 (60% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.34
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.44
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 23 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1301
- Opponent strength
- 1353
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €838k – €2.7M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 22 pts; role change LW -> ST; relative output down 29% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -54% (IQR -75% to -14%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1612 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 20 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–104%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 50%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Rostov | Premier Liga | ST | 28 | 1612 | 60% | 3 | 3 | 0.33 | 0.44 | 1353 | 1301 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | FK Rostov | Premier Liga | LW | 15 | 1025 | 38% | 4 | 3 | 0.61 | 0.51 | 1291 | 1342 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | FK Rostov | Premier Liga | LW | 22 | 1625 | 60% | 6 | 4 | 0.55 | 0.59 | 1334 | 1317 | 0.49 |
| 2021/22 | CD Santa Clara | Liga Portugal | LW | 16 | 441 | 14% | 3 | 0 | 0.61 | 0.61 | 1438 | 1391 | 0.67 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Iran | 3 | 246 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Rostov | 3 | 159 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | FK Rostov | 5 | 163 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | FK Rostov | 7 | 318 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Licá Liga Portugal · 2016 | 28 | €1.5M | €500k | fell |
| Bernard Berisha Premier Liga · 2020 | 29 | €1.6M | €1.5M | flat |
| Ricardo Valente Liga Portugal · 2016 | 25 | €1.8M | €1.5M | flat |
| Emre Kılınç Super Lig · 2023 | 29 | €2.8M | €1.8M | fell |
| Sami Super Lig · 2016 | 28 | €2.0M | €200k | fell |
| Ivo Rodrigues Liga Portugal · 2022 | 27 | €1.5M | €1.3M | flat |
| Reziuan Mirzov Premier Liga · 2022 | 29 | €1.5M | €400k | fell |
| Mostapha El Kabir Super Lig · 2016 | 28 | €3.5M | €700k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Jul 2023 | Santa Clara | Rostov | €600k | €1.2M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Esteghlal FC | Santa Clara | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 11 Aug 2022 | Santa Clara | Esteghlal FC | Free / loan | €700k |
| 24 Aug 2021 | Sepahan | Santa Clara | €500k | €700k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Shahin Bushehr | Sepahan | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Shahin U19 | Shahin Bushehr | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Shahin U17 | Shahin U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.