Ivan Lytvynenko
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ivan Lytvynenko's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.22x the positional average in the league (1394 minutes, league coefficient 0.25). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Around 18 months left: some discount usually possible.
Bargain Index: 92
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 9.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €523k vs market €900k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -1% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1394 (52% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.13
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.15
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 10 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1186
- Opponent strength
- 1179
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €480k – €1.6M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -22% (IQR -40% to -5%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1394 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 37 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 87%–128%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 86%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | TOV FK Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | Premier Liga | DM | 21 | 1394 | 52% | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.15 | 1179 | 1186 | 0.25 |
| 2022/23 | Chornomorets Odesa | Premier Liga | CM | 1 | 14 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.37 | 1387 | 1188 | 0.38 |
| 2020/21 | Rukh Lviv | Premier Liga | DM | 2 | 75 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 1295 | 1231 | 0.49 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Ukrainian Cup | TOV FK Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | 3 | 201 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Ukrainian Cup | VPK-Agro | 2 | 149 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Ukrainian Cup | Rukh Lviv | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Perea Super League 1 · 2023 | 26 | €600k | €400k | fell |
| Hrvoje Ilic Premier Liga · 2024 | 25 | €700k | €700k | flat |
| Daniel Avramovski Super Lig · 2021 | 26 | €1.0M | €300k | fell |
| Dylan Levitt Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 24 | €800k | €650k | flat |
| Yan Dhanda Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 25 | €750k | €700k | flat |
| Iker Bilbao Super League 1 · 2023 | 27 | €450k | €200k | fell |
| Endri Cekici Super Lig · 2021 | 25 | €1.0M | €3.2M | rose |
| Oleksiy Khakhlyov Premier Liga · 2023 | 24 | €400k | €300k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Aug 2024 | FC Dila | Metalist 1925 | €120k | €225k |
| 1 Feb 2024 | Dinamo Batumi | FC Dila | Free / loan | €150k |
| 11 Feb 2023 | Chornomorets | Dinamo Batumi | Free / loan | €50k |
| 15 Aug 2022 | Rukh Lviv | Chornomorets | Free / loan | €75k |
| 31 Dec 2021 | VPK-Agro | Rukh Lviv | Free / loan | €75k |
| 14 Jul 2021 | Rukh Lviv | VPK-Agro | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Rukh Lviv II | Rukh Lviv | Unknown | €100k |
| 18 Sept 2020 | SK Dnipro-1 II | Rukh Lviv II | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | SC Dnipro-1 U19 | SK Dnipro-1 II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Dnipro U17 | SC Dnipro-1 U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.