Espen van Ee
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Espen van Ee's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-2.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-1.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-2.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.91x the positional average in the league (1935 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 59
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 34.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €1.2M vs market €1.2M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +4% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 30% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1935 (63% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.14
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.20
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 35 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1309
- Opponent strength
- 1310
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- 30%
- Resale range (24m)
- €728k – €2.6M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; role change DM -> CM.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +10% (IQR -13% to +96%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–151%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Arouca | Liga Portugal | CM | 26 | 1880 | 61% | 2 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.20 | 1310 | 1310 | 0.58 |
| 2025/26 | SC Heerenveen | Eredivisie | AM | 1 | 55 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 1193 | 1284 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | SC Heerenveen | Eredivisie | DM | 32 | 2236 | 73% | 1 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.13 | 1311 | 1252 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | SC Heerenveen | Eredivisie | AM | 18 | 397 | 13% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 1401 | 1222 | 0.48 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | SC Heerenveen | 3 | 225 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | SC Heerenveen | 1 | 30 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Django Warmerdam Eredivisie · 2019 | 24 | €1.0M | €1.2M | rose |
| Thomas Bruns Eredivisie · 2013 | 21 | €1.0M | €1.0M | flat |
| Brecht Dejaegere Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 22 | €1.2M | €3.5M | rose |
| Peter Etebo Liga Portugal · 2017 | 22 | €1.0M | €5.0M | rose |
| Sergio Peña Liga Portugal · 2019 | 24 | €700k | €1.2M | rose |
| Lukas Marecek Eredivisie · 2013 | 23 | €1.3M | €900k | fell |
| David Wotherspoon Scottish Premiership · 2013 | 23 | €750k | €650k | flat |
| Christian Brüls Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 25 | €2.0M | €1.8M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Aug 2025 | Heerenveen | Arouca | €300k | €1.3M |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Heerenveen U21 | Heerenveen | Unknown | €400k |
| 18 Jul 2023 | Vitesse U21 | Heerenveen U21 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Vitesse U18 | Vitesse U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Vitesse U17 | Vitesse U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Vitesse Youth | Vitesse U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Alphense B. Jgd | Vitesse Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.