Hannibal
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Hannibal's performance-implied value at EUR 4.2M-19.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 9.0M-19.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 7.8M-23.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.60x the positional average in the league (1231 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 43
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 67.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €14.8M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -7% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1231 (36% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.37
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.64
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 67 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1343
- Opponent strength
- 1598
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €7.8M – €23.7M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -3% (IQR -24% to +1%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1231 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Burnley FC | Premier League | AM | 27 | 1231 | 36% | 1 | 4 | 0.37 | 0.64 | 1598 | 1343 | 1.30 |
| 2023/24 | Manchester United | Premier League | AM | 5 | 131 | 4% | 1 | 0 | 0.69 | 0.30 | 1508 | 1594 | 1.14 |
| 2023/24 | Sevilla FC | Laliga | AM | 6 | 101 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.49 | 1564 | 1475 | 1.00 |
| 2021/22 | Manchester United | Premier League | RM | 2 | 68 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.21 | 1570 | 1609 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Manchester United | Premier League | AM | 1 | 8 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 1522 | 1741 | 1.19 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Tunisia | 3 | 270 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Burnley FC | 2 | 48 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester United | 2 | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1630 |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Manchester United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Birmingham City | 3 | 183 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Alcaraz Premier League · 2023 | 21 | €15.0M | €14.0M | flat |
| Danilo Premier League · 2023 | 22 | €28.0M | €28.0M | flat |
| Ibrahima Diallo Premier League · 2022 | 23 | €10.0M | €6.5M | fell |
| Bobby De Cordova-Reid Premier League · 2019 | 26 | €10.0M | €10.0M | flat |
| Will Hughes Premier League · 2018 | 23 | €10.0M | €14.5M | rose |
| Issa Kaboré Premier League · 2024 | 23 | €10.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Albert Sambi Lokonga Premier League · 2024 | 25 | €15.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Marcus Tavernier Premier League · 2023 | 24 | €17.0M | €18.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Aug 2024 | Man Utd | Burnley | €6.4M | €9.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Sevilla FC | Man Utd | Free / loan | €9.0M |
| 15 Jan 2024 | Man Utd | Sevilla FC | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 31 May 2023 | Birmingham | Man Utd | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 29 Aug 2022 | Man Utd | Birmingham | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Man Utd U21 | Man Utd | Unknown | €6.0M |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Man Utd U18 | Man Utd U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 11 Aug 2019 | AS Monaco U17 | Man Utd U18 | €10.0M | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | ACBB Youth | AS Monaco U17 | €1.1M | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Paris FC Yth. | ACBB Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.