
Albert Sambi Lokonga
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Albert Sambi Lokonga's performance-implied value at EUR 5.6M-18.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 7.7M-13.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 5.0M-12.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.30x the positional average in the league (1714 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 16
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 77.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €11.1M vs market €12.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -32% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1714 (56% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.26
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.28
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 77 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1380
- Opponent strength
- 1513
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €5.0M – €12.9M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; relative output up 35% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -38% (IQR -53% to -8%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1714 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Hamburger SV | Bundesliga | CM | 26 | 1714 | 56% | 5 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.28 | 1513 | 1380 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | Sevilla FC | Laliga | CM | 22 | 1474 | 43% | 0 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.20 | 1515 | 1410 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Luton Town | Premier League | DM | 17 | 1310 | 38% | 1 | 3 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 1541 | 1315 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Crystal Palace | Premier League | CM | 9 | 536 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 1642 | 1536 | 1.23 |
| 2022/23 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | CM | 6 | 196 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1551 | 1726 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | CM | 19 | 1132 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1505 | 1667 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | CM | 27 | 2385 | 78% | 3 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.16 | 1366 | 1457 | 0.55 |
| 2019/20 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | CM | 23 | 1994 | 76% | 0 | 3 | 0.14 | 0.13 | 1359 | 1443 | 0.63 |
| 2018/19 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | CM | 6 | 445 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1400 | 1452 | 0.65 |
| 2017/18 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | DM | 5 | 334 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1279 | 1490 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Sevilla FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Luton Town | 2 | 133 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Arsenal FC | 6 | 478 | 0 | 0 | 1528 |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 2 | 107 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | RSC Anderlecht | 2 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1478 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gastón Ramírez Serie A · 2018 | 28 | €10.0M | €6.5M | fell |
| Matheus Henrique Serie A · 2023 | 26 | €10.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Simone Bastoni Serie A · 2022 | 26 | €7.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Enis Bardhi Laliga · 2022 | 27 | €8.0M | €6.5M | flat |
| Nicolás Domínguez Serie A · 2022 | 24 | €13.0M | €17.0M | rose |
| Dennis Geiger Bundesliga · 2023 | 25 | €8.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Rubén Vargas Bundesliga · 2024 | 26 | €7.5M | €12.0M | rose |
| Clément Chantôme Ligue 1 · 2014 | 27 | €6.0M | €3.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sept 2025 | Arsenal | Hamburg | €300k | €8.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Sevilla FC | Arsenal | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 15 Jul 2024 | Arsenal | Sevilla FC | Free / loan | €15.0M |
| 31 May 2024 | Luton | Arsenal | Free / loan | €15.0M |
| 1 Sept 2023 | Arsenal | Luton | Free / loan | €15.0M |
| 31 May 2023 | Crystal Palace | Arsenal | Free / loan | €15.0M |
| 31 Jan 2023 | Arsenal | Crystal Palace | Free / loan | €15.0M |
| 19 Jul 2021 | RSC Anderlecht | Arsenal | €17.5M | €12.0M |
| 1 Jan 2018 | Anderlecht U21 | RSC Anderlecht | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Anderlecht U19 | Anderlecht U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Anderlecht U17 | Anderlecht U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.