Luís Esteves
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Luís Esteves's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-1.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.3M-7.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.0M-7.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.77x the positional average in the league (2769 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 42
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 40.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €4.6M vs market €6.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -28% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2769 (91% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.39
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.39
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 41 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1303
- Opponent strength
- 1323
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.0M – €7.0M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+132 Elo); relative output up 69% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -56% (IQR -71% to -41%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–151%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Gil Vicente FC | Liga Portugal | CM | 33 | 2769 | 90% | 4 | 8 | 0.39 | 0.39 | 1323 | 1303 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | CD Nacional | Liga Portugal | CM | 33 | 2821 | 92% | 0 | 4 | 0.13 | 0.22 | 1353 | 1171 | 0.51 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryota Morioka Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 27 | €5.0M | €2.4M | fell |
| Raphael Holzhauser Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 28 | €4.2M | €700k | fell |
| Castro Super Lig · 2016 | 28 | €5.8M | €2.5M | fell |
| Nasser El Khayati Eredivisie · 2019 | 30 | €4.0M | €700k | fell |
| Emre Akbaba Super Lig · 2018 | 26 | €5.5M | €2.4M | fell |
| Aatif Chahechouhe Super Lig · 2016 | 30 | €3.5M | €1.2M | fell |
| Sofiane Hanni Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 26 | €4.0M | €8.0M | rose |
| Mateusz Klich Eredivisie · 2017 | 27 | €2.3M | €2.5M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Nacional | Gil Vicente | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 4 Jul 2022 | Guimarães B | Nacional | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Guimarães U23 | Guimarães B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Sanjoanense | Guimarães U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Braga U19 | Sanjoanense | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Sporting U19 | Braga U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2016 | Feirense U19 | Sporting U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2015 | Sporting U19 | Feirense U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Sporting U17 | Sporting U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Sporting Sub-15 | Sporting U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Sporting Yth. | Sporting Sub-15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.