Valentin Paltsev
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Valentin Paltsev's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-1.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.5M-3.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.5M-3.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 29
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 34.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €2.7M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -25% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1213 (45% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.06
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 35 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1372
- Opponent strength
- 1326
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.5M – €3.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 48 pts; team strength up (+139 Elo); relative output up 102% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +12% (IQR -33% to +74%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1213 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 48%–200%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dinamo Makhachkala | Premier Liga | CB | 7 | 617 | 23% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1326 | 1214 | 0.56 |
| 2025/26 | FK Krasnodar | Premier Liga | RB | 17 | 596 | 22% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1292 | 1536 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | Dinamo Makhachkala | Premier Liga | CB | 28 | 2520 | 93% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1301 | 1233 | 0.55 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Krasnodar | 9 | 697 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | Dinamo Makhachkala | 3 | 225 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | Dinamo Makhachkala | 6 | 508 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bogdan Mykhaylichenko Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 24 | €2.5M | €4.0M | rose |
| Jorge Fernandes Liga Portugal · 2022 | 25 | €2.0M | €2.5M | rose |
| Simen Juklerød Jupiler Pro League · 2020 | 26 | €1.7M | €1.5M | flat |
| Lucas Cunha Liga Portugal · 2023 | 26 | €2.5M | €2.5M | flat |
| Jelle Bataille Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 23 | €2.0M | €4.5M | rose |
| Solomon Kvirkvelia Premier Liga · 2017 | 25 | €3.5M | €10.0M | rose |
| Zeki Yavru Super Lig · 2017 | 26 | €1.6M | €400k | fell |
| Joãozinho Liga Portugal · 2014 | 25 | €2.0M | €600k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jan 2026 | Dinamo Makhach. | Krasnodar | €3.2M | €3.0M |
| 23 Jan 2026 | Krasnodar | Dinamo Makhach. | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 4 Sept 2025 | Dinamo Makhach. | Krasnodar | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 1 Jul 2024 | KamAZ | Dinamo Makhach. | €280k | €600k |
| 9 Jul 2023 | Khimki | KamAZ | €150k | €400k |
| 30 Jun 2023 | KamAZ | Khimki | Free / loan | €400k |
| 8 Jul 2022 | Khimki | KamAZ | Free / loan | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | KamAZ | Khimki | €22k | €250k |
| 3 Mar 2022 | Without Club | KamAZ | Unknown | €200k |
| 22 Feb 2022 | Volna Kovernino | Without Club | Unknown | €200k |
| 5 Oct 2020 | Spartak BGR | Volna Kovernino | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2019 | DYuSSh NN | Spartak BGR | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.