Ilaix Moriba
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ilaix Moriba's performance-implied value at EUR 10.6M-29.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 11.5M-23.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 8.1M-24.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.90x the positional average in the league (2489 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 50
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 78th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €16.1M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +8% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2489 (73% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.18
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.20
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 78 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1498
- Opponent strength
- 1491
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €8.1M – €24.9M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +19% (IQR -16% to +50%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | CM | 36 | 2489 | 73% | 2 | 3 | 0.18 | 0.20 | 1491 | 1498 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | CM | 33 | 2133 | 62% | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.16 | 1503 | 1476 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Getafe CF | Laliga | CM | 14 | 608 | 18% | 0 | 2 | 0.30 | 0.33 | 1507 | 1415 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Valencia CF | Laliga | CM | 24 | 1005 | 29% | 0 | 2 | 0.18 | 0.23 | 1509 | 1444 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Valencia CF | Laliga | CM | 14 | 818 | 24% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 1510 | 1487 | 1.05 |
| 2021/22 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | CM | 2 | 30 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 1445 | 1663 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | CM | 14 | 537 | 16% | 1 | 3 | 0.67 | 0.28 | 1555 | 1743 | 1.10 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Celta de Vigo | 11 | 900 | 0 | 1 | 1506 |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Celta de Vigo | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Celta de Vigo | 2 | 138 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 3 | 183 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Supercopa | Valencia CF | 1 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1823 |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 4 | 281 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | RB Leipzig | 3 | 60 | 0 | 0 | 1648 |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | RB Leipzig | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Copa Del Rey | FC Barcelona | 3 | 125 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | FC Barcelona | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1775 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roberto Soriano Serie A · 2015 | 24 | €10.0M | €16.0M | rose |
| Marco Benassi Serie A · 2018 | 24 | €13.0M | €11.0M | flat |
| Nicolás Domínguez Serie A · 2023 | 25 | €17.0M | €18.0M | flat |
| Samú Costa Laliga · 2024 | 24 | €10.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Marko Grujić Bundesliga · 2020 | 24 | €14.5M | €12.0M | flat |
| Manuel Lanzini Premier League · 2017 | 24 | €15.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Ivan Ilić Serie A · 2024 | 23 | €18.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Maximilian Arnold Bundesliga · 2017 | 23 | €10.0M | €15.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Leipzig | Celta de Vigo | €6.0M | €6.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Celta de Vigo | Leipzig | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 7 Aug 2024 | Leipzig | Celta de Vigo | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Getafe | Leipzig | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 8 Jan 2024 | Leipzig | Getafe | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Valencia | Leipzig | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 1 Sept 2022 | Leipzig | Valencia | Free / loan | €9.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Valencia | Leipzig | Free / loan | €9.0M |
| 28 Jan 2022 | Leipzig | Valencia | Free / loan | €20.0M |
| 31 Aug 2021 | Barcelona | Leipzig | €16.6M | €25.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Barcelona B | Barcelona | Unknown | €25.0M |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Barça U19 | Barcelona B | Unknown | €450k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Barça U16 | Barça U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Barça Youth | Barça U16 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Espanyol Youth | Barça Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.