Samú Costa
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Samú Costa's performance-implied value at EUR 5.8M-19.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 10.3M-20.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 6.5M-19.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 2.21x the positional average in the league (2707 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 24
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 78.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €14.7M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -20% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2707 (79% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.30
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.27
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 78 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1421
- Opponent strength
- 1485
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €6.5M – €19.6M
Trajectory drivers: relative output up 150% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -22% (IQR -57% to +7%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RCD Mallorca | Laliga | DM | 34 | 2707 | 79% | 7 | 2 | 0.30 | 0.27 | 1485 | 1421 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | RCD Mallorca | Laliga | DM | 32 | 2655 | 78% | 0 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.11 | 1520 | 1415 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | RCD Mallorca | Laliga | DM | 34 | 2305 | 67% | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.11 | 1505 | 1436 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | UD Almería | Laliga | DM | 32 | 1986 | 58% | 1 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.21 | 1531 | 1371 | 0.98 |
| 2019/20 | SC Braga | Liga Portugal | DM | 1 | 45 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 1647 | 1522 | 0.59 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Mallorca | 2 | 103 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Portugal | 1 | 20 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Supercopa | RCD Mallorca | 1 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1819 |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Mallorca | 5 | 344 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | UD Almería | 1 | 54 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abdoulaye Touré Ligue 1 · 2019 | 25 | €10.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Răzvan Marin Serie A · 2023 | 27 | €8.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Saša Lukić Serie A · 2022 | 26 | €15.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Mauro Arambarri Laliga · 2022 | 27 | €15.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Téji Savanier Ligue 1 · 2019 | 28 | €12.0M | €11.0M | flat |
| Gary Medel Laliga · 2013 | 26 | €10.0M | €10.0M | flat |
| Ellyes Skhiri Bundesliga · 2021 | 26 | €10.0M | €13.0M | rose |
| Anton Stach Bundesliga · 2024 | 26 | €15.0M | €28.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Aug 2023 | UD Almería | RCD Mallorca | €3.0M | €5.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Braga | UD Almería | €5.3M | €5.0M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | UD Almería | Braga | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 11 Sept 2020 | Braga | UD Almería | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 3 Aug 2020 | Braga U23 | Braga | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Braga U19 | Braga U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Braga U17 | Braga U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Palmeiras U17 | Braga U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Gafanha Yth. | Palmeiras U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Beira-Mar Yth. | Gafanha Yth. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.