Diego López
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Diego López's performance-implied value at EUR 7.9M-31.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 5.5M-11.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.1M-15.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.88x the positional average in the league (1763 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 50
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 74.8th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €7.9M vs market €9.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -12% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1763 (52% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.26
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.35
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 75 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1497
- Opponent strength
- 1494
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.1M – €15.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 29 pts; relative output down 28% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -62% (IQR -77% to -0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1763 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Valencia CF | Laliga | RW | 34 | 1763 | 52% | 4 | 1 | 0.26 | 0.35 | 1494 | 1496 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Valencia CF | Laliga | RW | 38 | 2760 | 81% | 8 | 5 | 0.42 | 0.53 | 1511 | 1463 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Valencia CF | Laliga | LW | 36 | 2672 | 78% | 3 | 6 | 0.30 | 0.36 | 1487 | 1459 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Valencia CF | Laliga | LW | 10 | 449 | 13% | 3 | 1 | 0.80 | 0.72 | 1514 | 1444 | 0.98 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 5 | 243 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 3 | 117 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 3 | 175 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raúl de Tomás Laliga · 2020 | 26 | €16.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Maxi Gómez Laliga · 2022 | 26 | €12.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Lukas Nmecha Bundesliga · 2022 | 24 | €18.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Jonas Wind Bundesliga · 2023 | 24 | €14.0M | €12.0M | flat |
| Adel Taarabt Serie A · 2014 | 25 | €8.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Andrea Petagna Serie A · 2018 | 23 | €9.0M | €14.5M | rose |
| Diego Rolán Ligue 1 · 2017 | 24 | €8.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Bruma Bundesliga · 2018 | 24 | €12.5M | €6.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | Valencia B | Valencia | Unknown | €1.5M |
| 2 Jul 2021 | Barça U19 | Valencia B | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Barça U18 | Barça U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 26 Jul 2018 | Real Madrid U17 | Barça U18 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 17 Jul 2017 | Sporting Yth. | Real Madrid U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.