Jonas Wind

27 yrs · Striker · Denmark
VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga · Foot: right · Height: 190 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: LowSample: LowDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2029
Market value
€4.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€2.0M – €5.7M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€2.1M – €5.0M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€1.1M – €4.1M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€3.6M – €2.9M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€2.0M – €5.7M
Model value (performance-implied)€2.1M – €5.0M
Projected value (24 months)€1.1M – €4.1M
Dashed line: current market value (€4.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Jonas Wind's performance-implied value at EUR 2.1M-5.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.0M-5.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.1M-4.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.90x the positional average in the league (480 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)

PerformanceAbove average59.7th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral27.4 years
Acquisition costNeutralest. €3.7M vs market €4.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-37% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.94
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceLow

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €25.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 901 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
480 (16% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.19
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.46
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
60 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.94 (rank 3)
Team strength (Elo)
1372
Opponent strength
1518
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€1.1M – €4.1M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 49 pts; team strength down (-66 Elo).

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -15% (IQR -41% to +7%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Small sample: 480 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26VfL WolfsburgBundesligaST1148016%100.190.46151813720.94
2024/25VfL WolfsburgBundesligaST31197164%930.550.48148214380.94
2023/24VfL WolfsburgBundesligaST34266387%1170.610.57150414271.01
2022/23VfL WolfsburgBundesligaST24129642%600.420.44153115251.04
2021/22FC CopenhagenSuperligaST16129866%640.690.45125115160.45
2021/22VfL WolfsburgBundesligaST14118739%510.450.51153014951.05
2020/21FC CopenhagenSuperligaST18160881%1140.840.50127414090.43
2019/20FC CopenhagenSuperligaST651922%521.210.45123414740.41
2018/19FC CopenhagenSuperligaST1280434%510.670.38128714990.44
2017/18FC CopenhagenSuperligaST3261%000.000.32117114530.47

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2024/25Dfb PokalVfL Wolfsburg413621—
2023/24Dfb PokalVfL Wolfsburg322611—
2022/23Dfb PokalVfL Wolfsburg28000—
2021/22Uefa Conference League QualifyingFC Copenhagen6345121337
2021/22Oddset PokalenFC Copenhagen14500—
2020/21Uefa Europa League QualifyingFC Copenhagen3270201402
2020/21Oddset PokalenFC Copenhagen16000—
2019/20Uefa Champions League QualifyingFC Copenhagen4314101425
2019/20Uefa Europa LeagueFC Copenhagen2210211657
2018/19Oddset PokalenFC Copenhagen19000—
2018/19Uefa Europa LeagueFC Copenhagen223001500
2017/18Uefa Europa LeagueFC Copenhagen110001804

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Gerard Deulofeu
Serie A · 2021
27€10.0M€10.0Mflat
Isaac Success
Serie A · 2024
28€2.5M€2.5Mflat
Kalifa Coulibaly
Ligue 1 · 2018
27€3.0M€4.0Mrose
Florian Kainz
Bundesliga · 2021
29€3.5M€5.0Mrose
Carles Pérez
Laliga · 2024
26€2.5M€1.8Mfell
Thomas Henry
Serie A · 2023
29€4.0M€1.0Mfell
Manolo Gabbiadini
Serie A · 2021
30€5.0M€2.0Mfell
Diego Falcinelli
Serie A · 2019
28€3.0M€2.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2026WolfsburgWithout ClubUnknown€4.0M
31 Jan 2022CopenhagenWolfsburg€12.0M€7.0M
7 Feb 2018Copenhagen U19CopenhagenUnknown€100k
1 Jul 2016FCK YouthCopenhagen U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2012Rosenhöj BKFCK YouthFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2010Avedöre IFRosenhöj BKFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.