Sem Scheperman
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Sem Scheperman's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-0.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.23x the positional average in the league (1124 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 93
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 2.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €344k vs market €600k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +0% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1124 (37% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.16
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.15
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 2 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1060
- Opponent strength
- 1320
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €359k – €817k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 17 pts; team strength down (-147 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +7% (IQR -13% to +40%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1124 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–148%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Heracles Almelo | Eredivisie | DM | 16 | 1124 | 37% | 1 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.15 | 1320 | 1060 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Heracles Almelo | Eredivisie | DM | 23 | 1639 | 54% | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.13 | 1314 | 1207 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | Heracles Almelo | Eredivisie | CM | 22 | 694 | 23% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 1367 | 1149 | 0.48 |
| 2021/22 | Heracles Almelo | Eredivisie | CM | 1 | 13 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 1215 | 1250 | 0.60 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | Heracles Almelo | 2 | 139 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | Heracles Almelo | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Kelly Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 24 | €550k | €550k | flat |
| Mario Curic Premier Liga · 2023 | 25 | €700k | €500k | fell |
| Oleksandr Belyaev Premier Liga · 2023 | 24 | €300k | €400k | rose |
| Kostakis Artymatas Super League 1 · 2018 | 25 | €500k | €800k | rose |
| Yan Dhanda Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 25 | €750k | €700k | flat |
| Bojan Roganovic Premier Liga · 2023 | 23 | €600k | €200k | fell |
| Vitaliy Boyko Premier Liga · 2023 | 26 | €350k | €400k | flat |
| Mickaël Malsa Super League 1 · 2018 | 23 | €300k | €800k | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Mar 2022 | FC Twente U21 | Heracles Almelo | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | FC Twente U19 | FC Twente U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | FC Twente U17 | FC Twente U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | FC Twente Youth | FC Twente U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.