Veldin Hodza
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Veldin Hodza's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-3.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.9M-5.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.0M-6.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.14x the positional average in the league (2007 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 69
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 34.7th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €3.2M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -4% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2007 (74% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.18
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.14
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 35 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1339
- Opponent strength
- 1331
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.0M – €6.8M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 27 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -30% (IQR -57% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 18 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 54%–153%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 56%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Rubin Kazan | Premier Liga | DM | 29 | 2007 | 74% | 3 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.14 | 1331 | 1339 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | FC Rubin Kazan | Premier Liga | DM | 22 | 1276 | 47% | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.15 | 1313 | 1322 | 0.55 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FC Rubin Kazan | 6 | 299 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | HNK Rijeka | 3 | 225 | 0 | 0 | 1433 |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | FC Rubin Kazan | 4 | 152 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | HNK Rijeka | 2 | 114 | 0 | 0 | 1418 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rúben Pinto Liga Portugal · 2016 | 24 | €2.0M | €2.0M | flat |
| Can Bozdogan Eredivisie · 2024 | 23 | €4.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Aleix García Jupiler Pro League · 2020 | 23 | €3.2M | €2.5M | fell |
| Ogenyi Onazi Super Lig · 2017 | 25 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Chico Geraldes Liga Portugal · 2018 | 23 | €3.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Morten Thorsby Eredivisie · 2018 | 22 | €2.0M | €2.0M | flat |
| Danil Glebov Premier Liga · 2021 | 22 | €3.0M | €8.0M | rose |
| Paulinho Liga Portugal · 2019 | 25 | €3.0M | €1.2M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sept 2024 | HNK Rijeka | Rubin Kazan | €2.0M | €3.5M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Hrv Dragovoljac | HNK Rijeka | Free / loan | €500k |
| 28 Jan 2022 | HNK Rijeka | Hrv Dragovoljac | Free / loan | €300k |
| 26 Jan 2022 | NK Orijent 1919 | HNK Rijeka | Free / loan | €300k |
| 9 Feb 2021 | HNK Rijeka U19 | NK Orijent 1919 | Free / loan | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | HNK Rijeka U17 | HNK Rijeka U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | HNK Rijeka Jgd | HNK Rijeka U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.