Aleix García
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Aleix García's performance-implied value at EUR 17.0M-32.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 8.8M-19.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 6.2M-14.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.96x the positional average in the league (2676 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 11
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 94.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €13.6M vs market €20.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -54% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2676 (88% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.40
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.21
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 95 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1626
- Opponent strength
- 1475
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €6.2M – €14.8M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 40 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -29% (IQR -41% to -22%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga | CM | 33 | 2676 | 87% | 3 | 9 | 0.40 | 0.21 | 1475 | 1626 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga | CM | 28 | 1452 | 47% | 3 | 4 | 0.43 | 0.20 | 1479 | 1681 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | Girona FC | Laliga | CM | 37 | 3201 | 94% | 3 | 6 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 1490 | 1621 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Girona FC | Laliga | CM | 30 | 2341 | 68% | 1 | 6 | 0.27 | 0.33 | 1508 | 1458 | 0.98 |
| 2020/21 | SD Eibar | Laliga | CM | 11 | 435 | 13% | 0 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.33 | 1616 | 1415 | 1.10 |
| 2019/20 | Royal Excel Mouscron (-2022) | Jupiler Pro League | AM | 23 | 1779 | 68% | 5 | 3 | 0.40 | 0.38 | 1377 | 1321 | 0.63 |
| 2018/19 | Girona FC | Laliga | DM | 31 | 1665 | 49% | 2 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.20 | 1576 | 1428 | 1.14 |
| 2017/18 | Girona FC | Laliga | DM | 20 | 843 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.15 | 1543 | 1459 | 1.11 |
| 2016/17 | Manchester City | Premier League | DM | 4 | 76 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1397 | 1713 | 1.07 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 12 | 1005 | 2 | 0 | 1675 |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 5 | 479 | 1 | 2 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 10 | 363 | 1 | 0 | 1654 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 3 | 214 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1637 |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Girona FC | 3 | 125 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Girona FC | 2 | 119 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Copa Del Rey | Girona FC | 3 | 270 | 0 | 3 | — |
| 2017/18 | Copa Del Rey | Girona FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 2 | 112 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Nzonzi Laliga · 2017 | 29 | €30.0M | €23.0M | fell |
| Atakan Karazor Bundesliga · 2024 | 28 | €12.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Robert Andrich Bundesliga · 2023 | 29 | €11.0M | €9.0M | flat |
| Marcos Llorente Laliga · 2024 | 29 | €30.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Alberto Aquilani Serie A · 2014 | 30 | €9.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Roman Eremenko Premier Liga · 2015 | 28 | €20.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Denis Suárez Laliga · 2021 | 27 | €12.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Mesut Özil Premier League · 2016 | 28 | €50.0M | €50.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Girona | Leverkusen | €18.0M | €25.0M |
| 23 Jul 2021 | SD Eibar | Girona | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 18 Jan 2021 | FC Dinamo | SD Eibar | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 5 Oct 2020 | Man City | FC Dinamo | Free / loan | €3.2M |
| 30 Jun 2020 | Mouscron | Man City | Free / loan | €3.2M |
| 2 Sept 2019 | Man City | Mouscron | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Girona | Man City | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 1 Aug 2017 | Man City | Girona | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Man City U23 | Man City | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 27 Aug 2015 | Villarreal CF B | Man City U21 | €4.0M | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | FC Villarreal C | Villarreal CF B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Villarreal U19 | FC Villarreal C | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Villarreal Yth. | Villarreal U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.