Fran Pérez
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Fran Pérez's performance-implied value at EUR 2.9M-8.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.3M-4.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.4M-5.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.88x the positional average in the league (1233 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 67
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 54.3th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €2.4M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +11% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1233 (36% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.22
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.35
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 54 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1518
- Opponent strength
- 1513
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.4M – €5.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 20 pts; changed club.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -15% (IQR -43% to +27%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1233 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Rayo Vallecano | Laliga | RW | 29 | 1233 | 36% | 2 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.35 | 1513 | 1518 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Valencia CF | Laliga | RW | 26 | 552 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 1492 | 1463 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Valencia CF | Laliga | RW | 32 | 2069 | 60% | 1 | 4 | 0.22 | 0.35 | 1489 | 1459 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Valencia CF | Laliga | RW | 7 | 134 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.46 | 1547 | 1444 | 0.98 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Rayo Vallecano | 4 | 327 | 3 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Rayo Vallecano | 2 | 121 | 0 | 0 | 1286 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 3 | 244 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 4 | 174 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 3 | 68 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Supercopa | Valencia CF | 1 | 38 | 0 | 0 | 1823 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pavel Yakovlev Premier Liga · 2014 | 23 | €3.5M | €1.2M | fell |
| Roland Sallai Bundesliga · 2020 | 23 | €3.5M | €12.0M | rose |
| Pietro Pellegri Serie A · 2024 | 23 | €3.0M | €3.0M | flat |
| Simon Zoller Bundesliga · 2016 | 25 | €2.8M | €1.8M | fell |
| Izet Hajrovic Bundesliga · 2015 | 24 | €2.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Takuma Asano Bundesliga · 2018 | 24 | €2.0M | €2.5M | rose |
| Valery Fernández Laliga · 2023 | 24 | €1.5M | €2.0M | rose |
| Alexandre Mendy Ligue 1 · 2018 | 24 | €2.5M | €1.8M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Aug 2025 | Valencia | Rayo Vallecano | €1.0M | €3.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Valencia B | Valencia | Unknown | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Valencia U19 | Valencia B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Valencia U18 | Valencia U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Valencia CF You | Valencia U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.