Roland Sallai

29 yrs · Right-back (also LW, RW, SS) · Hungary
Galatasaray · Super Lig · Foot: right · Height: 183 cm
Risk: LowConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€14.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€6.5M – €13.3M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€3.1M – €7.8M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€3.9M – €9.2M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€10.2M – €1.3M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€6.5M – €13.3M
Model value (performance-implied)€3.1M – €7.8M
Projected value (24 months)€3.9M – €9.2M
Dashed line: current market value (€14.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Roland Sallai's performance-implied value at EUR 3.1M-7.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 6.5M-13.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.9M-9.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 8

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAbove average71.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable29.1 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €9.0M vs market €14.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-59% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.4
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskLow
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €16.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2354 (77% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.19
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.10
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
71 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.40 (rank 18)
Team strength (Elo)
1501
Opponent strength
1242
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€3.9M – €9.2M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 24 pts; role change RW -> RB; relative output up 97% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -28% (IQR -64% to -7%).

Risk profile

Overall: Low

  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
50 (DEF)
Relative output kept
68%–191%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
54%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26GalatasaraySuper LigRB30235477%140.190.10124215010.40
2024/25GalatasaraySuper LigRW27166551%210.160.15128915570.39
2024/25SC FreiburgBundesligaRW2451%000.000.54168415050.94
2023/24SC FreiburgBundesligaRW27185261%320.240.27150614811.01
2022/23SC FreiburgBundesligaSS19100333%150.540.54152715611.04
2021/22SC FreiburgBundesligaRW31156051%450.520.41151715431.05
2020/21SC FreiburgBundesligaRW28167355%860.750.55151314921.06
2019/20SC FreiburgBundesligaRW21117038%210.230.33156614771.06
2018/19SC FreiburgBundesligaLW1052617%200.340.41148814131.05
2016/17Palermo FCSerie ARW2196128%100.090.33151512760.88

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueGalatasaray12900011613
2024/25Uefa Europa LeagueGalatasaray2180201478
2023/24Uefa Europa LeagueSC Freiburg9616411580
2023/24Dfb PokalSC Freiburg18211—
2022/23Dfb PokalSC Freiburg421311—
2022/23Uefa Europa LeagueSC Freiburg3115001590
2021/22Dfb PokalSC Freiburg522611—
2020/21Dfb PokalSC Freiburg12200—
2019/20Dfb PokalSC Freiburg212300—
2018/19Uefa Europa League QualifyingAPOEL Nicosia5479111383
2018/19Uefa Champions League QualifyingAPOEL Nicosia269001306
2016/17Italy CupPalermo FC112000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Alistair Johnston
Scottish Premiership · 2024
26€8.5M€8.0Mflat
Greg Taylor
Scottish Premiership · 2023
26€6.5M€6.0Mflat
Borna Barisic
Scottish Premiership · 2023
31€6.5M€800kfell
Vitor Hugo
Super Lig · 2022
31€6.0M€1.5Mfell
Vyacheslav Karavaev
Premier Liga · 2024
29€5.0M€2.0Mfell
Josip Juranovic
Scottish Premiership · 2022
27€7.0M€7.5Mflat
Tomasz Kędziora
Premier Liga · 2021
27€5.0M€3.0Mfell
Oleksandr Tymchyk
Premier Liga · 2024
27€4.0M€3.5Mflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
13 Sept 2024FreiburgGalatasaray€6.0M€15.0M
31 Aug 2018APOEL NicosiaFreiburg€4.5M€2.0M
29 Aug 2017Puskás AFCAPOEL Nicosia€2.0M€1.0M
30 Jun 2017US PalermoPuskás AFCFree / loan€1.0M
4 Aug 2016Puskás AFCUS PalermoFree / loan€450k
1 Jul 2014Puskás AFC U19Puskás AFCUnknownData unavailable
12 Aug 2013Videoton U17Puskás AFC U19Free / loanData unavailable
1 Aug 2012Puskás AFC Yth.Videoton U17Free / loanData unavailable
7 Aug 2009Siófok Yth.Puskás AFC Yth.Free / loanData unavailable
11 Aug 2007Diósgyőr Yth.Siófok Yth.Free / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.