
Roland Sallai
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Roland Sallai's performance-implied value at EUR 3.1M-7.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 6.5M-13.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.9M-9.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 8
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 71.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €9.0M vs market €14.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -59% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2354 (77% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.19
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 71 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1501
- Opponent strength
- 1242
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.9M – €9.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 24 pts; role change RW -> RB; relative output up 97% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -28% (IQR -64% to -7%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 50 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–191%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 54%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Galatasaray | Super Lig | RB | 30 | 2354 | 77% | 1 | 4 | 0.19 | 0.10 | 1242 | 1501 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Galatasaray | Super Lig | RW | 27 | 1665 | 51% | 2 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.15 | 1289 | 1557 | 0.39 |
| 2024/25 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | RW | 2 | 45 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.54 | 1684 | 1505 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | RW | 27 | 1852 | 61% | 3 | 2 | 0.24 | 0.27 | 1506 | 1481 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | SS | 19 | 1003 | 33% | 1 | 5 | 0.54 | 0.54 | 1527 | 1561 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | RW | 31 | 1560 | 51% | 4 | 5 | 0.52 | 0.41 | 1517 | 1543 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | RW | 28 | 1673 | 55% | 8 | 6 | 0.75 | 0.55 | 1513 | 1492 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | RW | 21 | 1170 | 38% | 2 | 1 | 0.23 | 0.33 | 1566 | 1477 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | LW | 10 | 526 | 17% | 2 | 0 | 0.34 | 0.41 | 1488 | 1413 | 1.05 |
| 2016/17 | Palermo FC | Serie A | RW | 21 | 961 | 28% | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.33 | 1515 | 1276 | 0.88 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Galatasaray | 12 | 900 | 0 | 1 | 1613 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Galatasaray | 2 | 180 | 2 | 0 | 1478 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | SC Freiburg | 9 | 616 | 4 | 1 | 1580 |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 1 | 82 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 4 | 213 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | SC Freiburg | 3 | 115 | 0 | 0 | 1590 |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 5 | 226 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 1 | 22 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 2 | 123 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | APOEL Nicosia | 5 | 479 | 1 | 1 | 1383 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | APOEL Nicosia | 2 | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1306 |
| 2016/17 | Italy Cup | Palermo FC | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alistair Johnston Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 26 | €8.5M | €8.0M | flat |
| Greg Taylor Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 26 | €6.5M | €6.0M | flat |
| Borna Barisic Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 31 | €6.5M | €800k | fell |
| Vitor Hugo Super Lig · 2022 | 31 | €6.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Vyacheslav Karavaev Premier Liga · 2024 | 29 | €5.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Josip Juranovic Scottish Premiership · 2022 | 27 | €7.0M | €7.5M | flat |
| Tomasz Kędziora Premier Liga · 2021 | 27 | €5.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Oleksandr Tymchyk Premier Liga · 2024 | 27 | €4.0M | €3.5M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Sept 2024 | Freiburg | Galatasaray | €6.0M | €15.0M |
| 31 Aug 2018 | APOEL Nicosia | Freiburg | €4.5M | €2.0M |
| 29 Aug 2017 | Puskás AFC | APOEL Nicosia | €2.0M | €1.0M |
| 30 Jun 2017 | US Palermo | Puskás AFC | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 4 Aug 2016 | Puskás AFC | US Palermo | Free / loan | €450k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Puskás AFC U19 | Puskás AFC | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 12 Aug 2013 | Videoton U17 | Puskás AFC U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2012 | Puskás AFC Yth. | Videoton U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 7 Aug 2009 | Siófok Yth. | Puskás AFC Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 11 Aug 2007 | Diósgyőr Yth. | Siófok Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.