Oleksandr Drambayev

25 yrs · Left-back (also CB) · Ukraine
LNZ Cherkasy · Premier Liga · Foot: left · Height: 186 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 31 Dec 2028
Market value
€900k
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€402k – €1.0M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€690k – €1.5M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€448k – €1.4M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€350k – €1.1M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€402k – €1.0M
Model value (performance-implied)€690k – €1.5M
Projected value (24 months)€448k – €1.4M
Dashed line: current market value (€900k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Oleksandr Drambayev's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-1.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 65

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average31.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral25.2 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €688k vs market €900k
Expected appreciationLow-13% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.25
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €900k

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1755 (65% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.05
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.05
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
32 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.25 (rank 30)
Team strength (Elo)
1242
Opponent strength
1163
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€448k – €1.4M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 19 pts; changed club.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -40% to +2%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠Limited sample: 1755 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
11 (DEF)
Relative output kept
108%–176%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
82%
Confidence
Low

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26LNZ CherkasyPremier LigaCB20175565%010.050.05116312420.25
2024/25Kryvbas Kryvyi RigPremier LigaCB16130048%100.070.05119512370.28
2024/25LNZ CherkasyPremier LigaLB1297736%000.000.10120811100.28
2022/23Zulte WaregemJupiler Pro LeagueLB22122740%110.150.16134412000.58
2021/22FK MariupolPremier LigaLB1488054%010.100.15131111390.45
2020/21FK MariupolPremier LigaLB1034415%010.260.20127712220.49

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Ukrainian CupLNZ Cherkasy210300—
2024/25Uefa Conference League QualifyingKryvbas Kryvyi Rig2114001531
2024/25Ukrainian CupKryvbas Kryvyi Rig19000—
2024/25Uefa Europa League QualifyingKryvbas Kryvyi Rig243001585
2021/22Ukrainian CupFK Mariupol19000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Jordan
Premier Liga · 2024
25€800k€1.0Mrose
David Carmona
Super League 1 · 2023
26€450k€450kflat
Vasyl Kravets
Premier Liga · 2024
27€1.0M€300kfell
Achilleas Poungouras
Super League 1 · 2021
26€800k€600kfell
Volodymyr Yakimets
Premier Liga · 2023
25€500k€100kfell
Richard Jensen
Scottish Premiership · 2024
28€750k€750kflat
Jack Fitzwater
Scottish Premiership · 2023
26€600k€600kflat
Sigurd Rosted
Superliga · 2020
26€1.2M€1.3Mflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
24 Jan 2025KryvbasLNZ Cherkasy€500k€900k
5 Jul 2024Shakhtar D.Kryvbas€180k€500k
30 Jun 2024NK OsijekShakhtar D.Free / loan€500k
1 Jul 2023Shakhtar D.NK OsijekFree / loan€600k
30 Jun 2023Zulte WaregemShakhtar D.Free / loan€600k
1 Jul 2022Shakhtar D.Zulte WaregemFree / loan€200k
30 Jun 2022FC MariupolShakhtar D.Free / loan€200k
5 Jan 2021Shakhtar D.FC MariupolFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jan 2021Shakhtar IIShakhtar D.UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2019Shakhtar U19Shakhtar IIUnknownData unavailable
1 Aug 2018Metalurg Z. U17Shakhtar U19Free / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Oleksandr Drambayev · MoneyballAI