
Oleksandr Drambayev
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Oleksandr Drambayev's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-1.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 65
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 31.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €688k vs market €900k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -13% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1755 (65% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.05
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.05
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 32 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1242
- Opponent strength
- 1163
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €448k – €1.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 19 pts; changed club.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -40% to +2%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1755 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 11 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 108%–176%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 82%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | LNZ Cherkasy | Premier Liga | CB | 20 | 1755 | 65% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 1163 | 1242 | 0.25 |
| 2024/25 | Kryvbas Kryvyi Rig | Premier Liga | CB | 16 | 1300 | 48% | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 1195 | 1237 | 0.28 |
| 2024/25 | LNZ Cherkasy | Premier Liga | LB | 12 | 977 | 36% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1208 | 1110 | 0.28 |
| 2022/23 | Zulte Waregem | Jupiler Pro League | LB | 22 | 1227 | 40% | 1 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.16 | 1344 | 1200 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | FK Mariupol | Premier Liga | LB | 14 | 880 | 54% | 0 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.15 | 1311 | 1139 | 0.45 |
| 2020/21 | FK Mariupol | Premier Liga | LB | 10 | 344 | 15% | 0 | 1 | 0.26 | 0.20 | 1277 | 1222 | 0.49 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Ukrainian Cup | LNZ Cherkasy | 2 | 103 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Kryvbas Kryvyi Rig | 2 | 114 | 0 | 0 | 1531 |
| 2024/25 | Ukrainian Cup | Kryvbas Kryvyi Rig | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Kryvbas Kryvyi Rig | 2 | 43 | 0 | 0 | 1585 |
| 2021/22 | Ukrainian Cup | FK Mariupol | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Premier Liga · 2024 | 25 | €800k | €1.0M | rose |
| David Carmona Super League 1 · 2023 | 26 | €450k | €450k | flat |
| Vasyl Kravets Premier Liga · 2024 | 27 | €1.0M | €300k | fell |
| Achilleas Poungouras Super League 1 · 2021 | 26 | €800k | €600k | fell |
| Volodymyr Yakimets Premier Liga · 2023 | 25 | €500k | €100k | fell |
| Richard Jensen Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 28 | €750k | €750k | flat |
| Jack Fitzwater Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 26 | €600k | €600k | flat |
| Sigurd Rosted Superliga · 2020 | 26 | €1.2M | €1.3M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jan 2025 | Kryvbas | LNZ Cherkasy | €500k | €900k |
| 5 Jul 2024 | Shakhtar D. | Kryvbas | €180k | €500k |
| 30 Jun 2024 | NK Osijek | Shakhtar D. | Free / loan | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Shakhtar D. | NK Osijek | Free / loan | €600k |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Zulte Waregem | Shakhtar D. | Free / loan | €600k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Shakhtar D. | Zulte Waregem | Free / loan | €200k |
| 30 Jun 2022 | FC Mariupol | Shakhtar D. | Free / loan | €200k |
| 5 Jan 2021 | Shakhtar D. | FC Mariupol | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2021 | Shakhtar II | Shakhtar D. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Shakhtar U19 | Shakhtar II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2018 | Metalurg Z. U17 | Shakhtar U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.