Pepelu
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Pepelu's performance-implied value at EUR 5.3M-15.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.8M-8.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.3M-8.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.76x the positional average in the league (2234 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 38
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 76.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €6.1M vs market €8.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -30% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2234 (65% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.08
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 77 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1497
- Opponent strength
- 1501
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.3M – €8.0M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 51% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +5% (IQR -47% to +73%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Valencia CF | Laliga | DM | 31 | 2234 | 65% | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.09 | 1501 | 1496 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Valencia CF | Laliga | DM | 34 | 1731 | 51% | 2 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.20 | 1518 | 1463 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Valencia CF | Laliga | DM | 37 | 3305 | 97% | 7 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.21 | 1486 | 1459 | 1.00 |
| 2021/22 | Levante UD | Laliga | DM | 29 | 2006 | 59% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1545 | 1444 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Vitória Guimarães SC | Liga Portugal | DM | 30 | 2391 | 78% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 1345 | 1329 | 0.61 |
| 2019/20 | CD Tondela | Liga Portugal | DM | 33 | 2904 | 95% | 2 | 4 | 0.19 | 0.23 | 1382 | 1250 | 0.59 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 2 | 149 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 5 | 450 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 2 | 190 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Levante UD | 1 | 120 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2015/16 | Copa Del Rey | Levante UD | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juraj Kucka Serie A · 2016 | 29 | €8.0M | €3.8M | fell |
| Mario Lemina Ligue 1 · 2022 | 29 | €9.0M | €10.0M | flat |
| Milan Badelj Serie A · 2016 | 27 | €8.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Mërgim Vojvoda Serie A · 2022 | 27 | €5.5M | €3.0M | fell |
| Pablo Rosario Ligue 1 · 2024 | 27 | €8.0M | €8.0M | flat |
| Filip Djuricic Serie A · 2021 | 29 | €9.0M | €1.8M | fell |
| Jerdy Schouten Serie A · 2023 | 26 | €12.0M | €22.0M | rose |
| Josip Ilicic Serie A · 2017 | 29 | €10.0M | €17.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Jul 2023 | Levante | Valencia | €5.0M | €3.0M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Vit. Guimarães | Levante | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 8 Sept 2020 | Levante | Vit. Guimarães | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 27 Jul 2020 | Tondela | Levante | Free / loan | €900k |
| 26 Jul 2019 | Levante | Tondela | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Atl. Levante | Levante | Unknown | €300k |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Hércules CF | Atl. Levante | Free / loan | €300k |
| 15 Aug 2017 | Atl. Levante | Hércules CF | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Levante U19 | Atl. Levante | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Levante UD Yout | Levante U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Dénia U19 | Levante UD Yout | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.