Borja Sainz
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Borja Sainz's performance-implied value at EUR 2.9M-20.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 16.1M-26.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 11.8M-34.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.75x the positional average in the league (1602 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 44
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 68.6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €19.8M vs market €20.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -6% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1602 (52% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.45
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.30
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 69 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1594
- Opponent strength
- 1331
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €11.8M – €34.4M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -5% (IQR -29% to +73%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1602 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 71%–130%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 66%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Porto | Liga Portugal | LW | 30 | 1602 | 52% | 5 | 3 | 0.45 | 0.31 | 1331 | 1594 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | Giresunspor | Super Lig | LW | 32 | 2666 | 82% | 9 | 4 | 0.44 | 0.47 | 1293 | 1233 | 0.50 |
| 2020/21 | Deportivo Alavés | Laliga | LW | 21 | 439 | 13% | 1 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.52 | 1603 | 1428 | 1.10 |
| 2019/20 | Deportivo Alavés | Laliga | LW | 19 | 562 | 16% | 1 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.41 | 1530 | 1452 | 1.16 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | FC Porto | 12 | 674 | 1 | 3 | 1472 |
| 2020/21 | Copa Del Rey | Deportivo Alavés | 3 | 162 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2019/20 | Copa Del Rey | Deportivo Alavés | 1 | 72 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernard Premier Liga · 2017 | 25 | €14.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Luis Díaz Liga Portugal · 2021 | 24 | €18.0M | €75.0M | rose |
| Taison Premier Liga · 2015 | 27 | €15.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Vincent Aboubakar Liga Portugal · 2018 | 26 | €18.0M | €5.5M | fell |
| Diego Rossi Super Lig · 2023 | 25 | €9.5M | €8.5M | flat |
| Willian Premier Liga · 2013 | 25 | €30.0M | €30.0M | flat |
| Alfredo Morelos Scottish Premiership · 2021 | 25 | €12.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Cody Gakpo Eredivisie · 2021 | 22 | €18.0M | €55.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Jul 2025 | Norwich | Porto | €13.3M | €14.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Giresunspor | Norwich | Free / loan | €2.2M |
| 29 Jul 2022 | Alavés | Giresunspor | Free / loan | €2.2M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Real Zaragoza | Alavés | Free / loan | €2.2M |
| 5 Aug 2021 | Alavés | Real Zaragoza | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Alavés U19 | Alavés | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Alavés Youth | Alavés U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Bilbao Youth | Alavés Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.