Luis Díaz
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Luis Díaz's performance-implied value at EUR 57.9M-109.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 32.9M-70.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 27.1M-46.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.96x the positional average in the league (2451 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 9
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 99.4th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €48.4M vs market €70.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -55% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2451 (80% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 1.18
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.39
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 99 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1871
- Opponent strength
- 1469
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €27.1M – €46.8M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+71 Elo); league level down (-105 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -38% (IQR -58% to -20%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | LW | 32 | 2451 | 80% | 15 | 17 | 1.18 | 0.39 | 1469 | 1871 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | Liverpool FC | Premier League | LW | 36 | 2413 | 71% | 13 | 7 | 0.75 | 0.38 | 1546 | 1800 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Liverpool FC | Premier League | LW | 37 | 2646 | 77% | 8 | 5 | 0.44 | 0.29 | 1562 | 1755 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Liverpool FC | Premier League | LW | 17 | 997 | 29% | 4 | 2 | 0.54 | 0.26 | 1510 | 1771 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | FC Porto | Liga Portugal | LM | 18 | 1508 | 49% | 14 | 5 | 1.13 | 0.46 | 1334 | 1692 | 0.67 |
| 2021/22 | Liverpool FC | Premier League | LW | 13 | 963 | 28% | 4 | 3 | 0.65 | 0.29 | 1554 | 1898 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | FC Porto | Liga Portugal | LW | 30 | 1639 | 54% | 6 | 5 | 0.60 | 0.32 | 1337 | 1680 | 0.61 |
| 2019/20 | FC Porto | Liga Portugal | LM | 29 | 1773 | 58% | 6 | 4 | 0.51 | 0.27 | 1372 | 1609 | 0.59 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Bayern Munich | 12 | 981 | 7 | 4 | 1708 |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | Bayern Munich | 5 | 448 | 3 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Colombia | 3 | 270 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Bayern Munich | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1531 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Liverpool FC | 9 | 631 | 3 | 1 | 1706 |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Liverpool FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Liverpool FC | 7 | 442 | 3 | 0 | 1562 |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Liverpool FC | 3 | 215 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Liverpool FC | 3 | 270 | 1 | 1 | 1666 |
| 2022/23 | Community Shield | Liverpool FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1866 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | FC Porto | 6 | 523 | 2 | 0 | 1732 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Liverpool FC | 7 | 385 | 2 | 1 | 1692 |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Liverpool FC | 5 | 247 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | FC Porto | 9 | 450 | 2 | 1 | 1654 |
| 2020/21 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | FC Porto | 1 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 1605 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | FC Porto | 8 | 403 | 3 | 1 | 1538 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | FC Porto | 2 | 125 | 1 | 0 | 1534 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Lewandowski Bundesliga · 2016 | 28 | €75.0M | €90.0M | rose |
| Lautaro Martínez Serie A · 2024 | 27 | €110M | €85.0M | fell |
| Edinson Cavani Ligue 1 · 2017 | 30 | €45.0M | €40.0M | flat |
| Thomas Müller Bundesliga · 2018 | 29 | €60.0M | €25.5M | fell |
| Luis Suárez Laliga · 2018 | 31 | €70.0M | €28.0M | fell |
| Diego Costa Premier League · 2017 | 29 | €50.0M | €25.0M | fell |
| Carlos Tevez Serie A · 2015 | 31 | €23.0M | €4.5M | fell |
| Marcus Thuram Serie A · 2024 | 27 | €65.0M | €50.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2025 | Liverpool | Bayern Munich | €70.0M | €70.0M |
| 30 Jan 2022 | Porto | Liverpool | €49.0M | €40.0M |
| 10 Jul 2019 | Junior FC | Porto | €7.2M | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Barranquilla FC | Junior FC | Unknown | €75k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | B/quilla FC U20 | Barranquilla FC | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.