Oluwatobiloba Alagbe
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Oluwatobiloba Alagbe's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.21x the positional average in the league (963 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 91
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 7.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €336k vs market €600k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -7% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 963 (41% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.09
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.15
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 8 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1138
- Opponent strength
- 1233
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €282k – €821k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 21 pts; league level up (+40 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -26% (IQR -35% to -10%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 963 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 14 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 67%–189%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 64%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 | DM | 14 | 963 | 41% | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.15 | 1233 | 1138 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 | DM | 23 | 1458 | 62% | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.16 | 1278 | 1185 | 0.35 |
| 2023/24 | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 | DM | 17 | 1002 | 43% | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.15 | 1325 | 1212 | 0.42 |
| 2022/23 | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 | DM | 7 | 400 | 17% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 1282 | 1198 | 0.37 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | 3 | 96 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Kypello Elladas | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | 6 | 238 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Kypello Elladas | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | 3 | 148 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Cairney Scottish Premiership · 2014 | 27 | €450k | €350k | fell |
| Álvaro Vieira Premier Liga · 2021 | 26 | €500k | €150k | fell |
| Kostakis Artymatas Super League 1 · 2018 | 25 | €500k | €800k | rose |
| Luis Perea Super League 1 · 2023 | 26 | €600k | €400k | fell |
| Adrián Riera Super League 1 · 2023 | 27 | €500k | €350k | fell |
| Danny Bejarano Super League 1 · 2019 | 25 | €450k | €400k | flat |
| Yan Dhanda Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 25 | €750k | €700k | flat |
| Oleg Ilyin Premier Liga · 2024 | 27 | €500k | €300k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Jan 2023 | Pr. Niederkorn | Asteras Tripoli | Free / loan | €100k |
| 18 Aug 2022 | Asteras Tripoli | Pr. Niederkorn | Free / loan | €100k |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Jeunesse Esch | Asteras Tripoli | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Asteras Tripoli | Jeunesse Esch | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Ast.Tripoli U19 | Asteras Tripoli | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.