Maksim Shnaptsev
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Maksim Shnaptsev's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-0.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 64
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 8.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €733k vs market €800k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +4% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 15% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1824 (68% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.15
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.25
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 9 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1176
- Opponent strength
- 1348
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 15%
- Resale range (24m)
- €479k – €1.9M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +55% (IQR -43% to +113%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 48%–200%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Nizhny Novgorod | Premier Liga | RB | 23 | 1824 | 68% | 0 | 3 | 0.15 | 0.25 | 1348 | 1176 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | FK Nizhny Novgorod | Premier Liga | RM | 8 | 267 | 10% | 0 | 1 | 0.34 | 0.37 | 1350 | 1181 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | FK Nizhny Novgorod | Premier Liga | LM | 12 | 409 | 15% | 0 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.25 | 1323 | 1164 | 0.49 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Nizhny Novgorod | 2 | 135 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | FK Nizhny Novgorod | 5 | 406 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | FK Nizhny Novgorod | 3 | 158 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| João Tornich Liga Portugal · 2024 | 22 | €800k | €2.5M | rose |
| Mark Mampassi Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 21 | €800k | €400k | fell |
| Matheus Pereira Liga Portugal · 2024 | 24 | €800k | €1.5M | rose |
| Mickaël Tirpan Jupiler Pro League · 2017 | 24 | €450k | €700k | rose |
| Vyacheslav Lukhtanov Premier Liga · 2016 | 21 | €400k | €100k | fell |
| Michaël Heylen Jupiler Pro League · 2017 | 23 | €1.0M | €600k | fell |
| Arthur Zagré Eredivisie · 2024 | 23 | €1.3M | €2.0M | rose |
| Lukas Engel Superliga · 2022 | 24 | €450k | €2.2M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Jul 2023 | Loko Moscow II | Pari NN | €30k | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Ak. Loko U17 | Loko Moscow II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Ak.Loko U16 | Ak. Loko U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.