
Arthur Zagré
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Arthur Zagré's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-1.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.8M-2.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.0M-3.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 89
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 30.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.4M vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +8% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2386 (78% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.23
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.22
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 30 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1183
- Opponent strength
- 1319
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.0M – €3.6M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -4% (IQR -25% to +16%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 65%–166%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Excelsior Rotterdam | Eredivisie | LB | 30 | 2386 | 78% | 4 | 2 | 0.23 | 0.22 | 1319 | 1183 | 0.43 |
| 2023/24 | Excelsior Rotterdam | Eredivisie | LB | 28 | 2322 | 76% | 1 | 4 | 0.19 | 0.22 | 1355 | 1142 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | Excelsior Rotterdam | Eredivisie | LB | 9 | 620 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1379 | 1197 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | FC Utrecht | Eredivisie | LW | 2 | 66 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.45 | 1401 | 1392 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | FC Utrecht | Eredivisie | LB | 8 | 416 | 14% | 1 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.14 | 1319 | 1358 | 0.60 |
| 2020/21 | Dijon FCO | Ligue 1 | LB | 3 | 120 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 1406 | 1211 | 0.75 |
| 2019/20 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | CM | 1 | 24 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1325 | 1779 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | Excelsior Rotterdam | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | Excelsior Rotterdam | 2 | 205 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Knvb Beker | FC Utrecht | 2 | 119 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rick van Drongelen Super Lig · 2024 | 26 | €1.4M | €6.0M | rose |
| Vanja Drkusic Premier Liga · 2024 | 25 | €2.8M | €5.0M | rose |
| Okan Erdoğan Super Lig · 2023 | 25 | €800k | €650k | flat |
| Yuriy Gorshkov Premier Liga · 2024 | 25 | €3.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Guy-Marcelin Kilama Super Lig · 2024 | 25 | €1.3M | €1.3M | flat |
| Jure Balkovec Super Lig · 2021 | 27 | €2.4M | €2.2M | flat |
| Marcelo Alves Premier Liga · 2024 | 26 | €800k | €800k | flat |
| Danil Stepanov Premier Liga · 2022 | 22 | €2.0M | €1.2M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Excelsior | Without Club | Unknown | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Monaco | Excelsior | Free / loan | €700k |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Excelsior | Monaco | Free / loan | €700k |
| 31 Jan 2023 | Monaco | Excelsior | Free / loan | €800k |
| 30 Jan 2023 | Utrecht | Monaco | Free / loan | €800k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Monaco | Utrecht | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Dijon | Monaco | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 5 Oct 2020 | Monaco | Dijon | Free / loan | €6.3M |
| 29 Aug 2019 | PSG | Monaco | €10.0M | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Paris SG U19 | PSG | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Paris SG U17 | Paris SG U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | PSG Youth | Paris SG U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.