
Tajon Buchanan
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Tajon Buchanan's performance-implied value at EUR 3.6M-11.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 7.5M-15.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.3M-15.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.93x the positional average in the league (1821 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 8
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 76.4th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €12.3M vs market €12.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -34% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1821 (53% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.40
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.36
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 76 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1544
- Opponent strength
- 1493
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.3M – €15.8M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 39 pts; team strength down (-92 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -32% (IQR -52% to -9%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | RW | 34 | 1821 | 53% | 7 | 1 | 0.40 | 0.36 | 1493 | 1544 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | RW | 13 | 412 | 12% | 1 | 2 | 0.66 | 0.52 | 1561 | 1597 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Inter Milan | Serie A | LM | 6 | 89 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1395 | 1819 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Club Brugge KV | Jupiler Pro League | RB | 12 | 833 | 31% | 2 | 2 | 0.43 | 0.17 | 1331 | 1541 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | Inter Milan | Serie A | LM | 10 | 151 | 4% | 1 | 0 | 0.60 | 0.13 | 1393 | 1802 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | Club Brugge KV | Jupiler Pro League | RW | 22 | 1627 | 53% | 1 | 4 | 0.28 | 0.22 | 1345 | 1491 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | Club Brugge KV | Jupiler Pro League | LM | 9 | 732 | 24% | 0 | 2 | 0.25 | 0.17 | 1316 | 1512 | 0.49 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Villarreal CF | 7 | 430 | 0 | 0 | 1603 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Canada | 3 | 219 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Villarreal CF | 2 | 80 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Inter Milan | 1 | 74 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Club Brugge KV | 5 | 391 | 1 | 0 | 1393 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Club Brugge KV | 6 | 523 | 0 | 2 | 1677 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stevan Jovetić Serie A · 2016 | 27 | €15.0M | €14.0M | flat |
| Wahbi Khazri Ligue 1 · 2018 | 27 | €10.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Mario Balotelli Ligue 1 · 2017 | 27 | €15.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Luka Jović Serie A · 2023 | 26 | €8.0M | €4.5M | fell |
| Simone Zaza Laliga · 2017 | 26 | €15.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Gonçalo Paciência Bundesliga · 2020 | 26 | €12.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Renato Steffen Bundesliga · 2019 | 28 | €5.0M | €4.5M | flat |
| André Schürrle Bundesliga · 2018 | 28 | €15.0M | €4.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Jul 2025 | Inter | Villarreal | €9.0M | €6.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Villarreal | Inter | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 1 Feb 2025 | Inter | Villarreal | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 5 Jan 2024 | Club Brugge | Inter | €7.3M | €8.0M |
| 1 Jan 2022 | New England | Club Brugge | €6.4M | €8.5M |
| 11 Jan 2019 | Syracuse | New England | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2018 | Sigma FC | Syracuse | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 May 2018 | Syracuse | Sigma FC | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2017 | Real Colorado | Syracuse | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Mississauga F. | Real Colorado | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.