Tajon Buchanan

27 yrs · Right winger (also LM, RB) · Canada
Villarreal CF · Laliga · Foot: right · Height: 183 cm
Risk: LowConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2030
Market value
€12.0M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€7.5M – €15.6M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€3.6M – €11.8M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€4.3M – €15.8M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€12.0M – €4.3M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€7.5M – €15.6M
Model value (performance-implied)€3.6M – €11.8M
Projected value (24 months)€4.3M – €15.8M
Dashed line: current market value (€12.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Tajon Buchanan's performance-implied value at EUR 3.6M-11.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 7.5M-15.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.3M-15.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.93x the positional average in the league (1821 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 8

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceHigh76.4th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral27.4 years
Acquisition costNeutralest. €12.3M vs market €12.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-34% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapNegativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.95
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskLow
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €12.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1821 (53% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.40
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.36
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
76 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.95 (rank 2)
Team strength (Elo)
1544
Opponent strength
1493
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€4.3M – €15.8M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 39 pts; team strength down (-92 Elo).

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -32% (IQR -52% to -9%).

Risk profile

Overall: Low

  • ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Villarreal CFLaligaRW34182153%710.400.36149315440.95
2024/25Villarreal CFLaligaRW1341212%120.660.52156115970.95
2024/25Inter MilanSerie ALM6893%000.000.09139518190.99
2023/24Club Brugge KVJupiler Pro LeagueRB1283331%220.430.17133115410.63
2023/24Inter MilanSerie ALM101514%100.600.13139318020.98
2022/23Club Brugge KVJupiler Pro LeagueRW22162753%140.280.22134514910.58
2021/22Club Brugge KVJupiler Pro LeagueLM973224%020.250.17131615120.49

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueVillarreal CF7430001603
2025/26World CupCanada321900—
2025/26Copa Del ReyVillarreal CF28000—
2024/25Italy CupInter Milan17400—
2023/24Uefa Conference League QualifyingClub Brugge KV5391101393
2022/23Uefa Champions LeagueClub Brugge KV6523021677

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Stevan Jovetić
Serie A · 2016
27€15.0M€14.0Mflat
Wahbi Khazri
Ligue 1 · 2018
27€10.0M€7.0Mfell
Mario Balotelli
Ligue 1 · 2017
27€15.0M€20.0Mrose
Luka Jović
Serie A · 2023
26€8.0M€4.5Mfell
Simone Zaza
Laliga · 2017
26€15.0M€10.0Mfell
Gonçalo Paciência
Bundesliga · 2020
26€12.0M€3.0Mfell
Renato Steffen
Bundesliga · 2019
28€5.0M€4.5Mflat
André Schürrle
Bundesliga · 2018
28€15.0M€4.5Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
29 Jul 2025InterVillarreal€9.0M€6.0M
30 Jun 2025VillarrealInterFree / loan€6.0M
1 Feb 2025InterVillarrealFree / loan€8.0M
5 Jan 2024Club BruggeInter€7.3M€8.0M
1 Jan 2022New EnglandClub Brugge€6.4M€8.5M
11 Jan 2019SyracuseNew EnglandFree / loanData unavailable
1 Aug 2018Sigma FCSyracuseFree / loanData unavailable
1 May 2018SyracuseSigma FCFree / loanData unavailable
1 Aug 2017Real ColoradoSyracuseFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2014Mississauga F.Real ColoradoFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.