Tommaso Baldanzi
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Tommaso Baldanzi's performance-implied value at EUR 5.0M-27.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.4M-8.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.7M-13.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.02x the positional average in the league (784 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Above average | 67th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €4.6M vs market €8.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -9% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 784 (23% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.34
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.54
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 67 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1520
- Opponent strength
- 1509
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.7M – €13.6M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength down (-149 Elo); relative output up 53% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -16% (IQR -50% to -8%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 784 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Genoa CFC | Serie A | AM | 8 | 401 | 12% | 0 | 2 | 0.45 | 0.54 | 1509 | 1406 | 0.93 |
| 2025/26 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | AM | 10 | 383 | 11% | 1 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.28 | 1492 | 1638 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | AM | 31 | 814 | 24% | 1 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.26 | 1466 | 1668 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | FC Empoli | Serie A | AM | 14 | 744 | 22% | 2 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.44 | 1506 | 1388 | 0.98 |
| 2023/24 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | AM | 13 | 497 | 15% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 1450 | 1618 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | FC Empoli | Serie A | AM | 26 | 1788 | 52% | 4 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.36 | 1478 | 1388 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | FC Empoli | Serie A | ST | 1 | 17 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.86 | 1596 | 1331 | 0.89 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 9 | 462 | 0 | 1 | 1545 |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 5 | 133 | 0 | 0 | 1611 |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | FC Empoli | 1 | 37 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Soppy Serie A · 2023 | 21 | €9.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| André Martins Liga Portugal · 2013 | 23 | €4.0M | €3.5M | flat |
| Jean Onana Ligue 1 · 2024 | 24 | €4.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Skelly Alvero Ligue 1 · 2024 | 22 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Youssef Maleh Serie A · 2022 | 24 | €5.0M | €4.5M | flat |
| Dennis Geiger Bundesliga · 2021 | 23 | €10.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Ramón Terrats Laliga · 2023 | 23 | €4.0M | €4.0M | flat |
| Santiago Ascacíbar Bundesliga · 2021 | 24 | €6.5M | €6.5M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Genoa | Roma | Free / loan | €8.5M |
| 23 Jan 2026 | Roma | Genoa | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 1 Feb 2024 | FC Empoli | Roma | €11.5M | €15.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Empoli U19 | FC Empoli | Unknown | €600k |
| 1 Sept 2020 | Empoli U17 | Empoli U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Empoli FC Youth | Empoli U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.