Moussa Ndiaye
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Moussa Ndiaye's performance-implied value at EUR 1.0M-2.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.1M-5.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.3M-4.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 13
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 36.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €3.8M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -35% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 970 (36% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.06
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 37 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1393
- Opponent strength
- 1369
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.3M – €4.9M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 24 pts; team strength down (-82 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -33% (IQR -56% to +16%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 970 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 76 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 67%–160%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | LB | 17 | 970 | 36% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1369 | 1393 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | LB | 22 | 1622 | 60% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 1341 | 1476 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | LB | 11 | 642 | 24% | 1 | 2 | 0.42 | 0.23 | 1393 | 1516 | 0.63 |
| 2022/23 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | LB | 15 | 839 | 27% | 0 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.08 | 1326 | 1432 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | RSC Anderlecht | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1330 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | RSC Anderlecht | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1308 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | RSC Anderlecht | 8 | 443 | 0 | 1 | 1524 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | RSC Anderlecht | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1385 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casper De Norre Jupiler Pro League · 2020 | 23 | €2.4M | €1.3M | fell |
| Stanley Nsoki Ligue 1 · 2021 | 22 | €5.0M | €5.5M | flat |
| Ilya Kutepov Premier Liga · 2019 | 26 | €4.0M | €1.8M | fell |
| Igor Diveev Premier Liga · 2024 | 25 | €6.0M | €10.0M | rose |
| Nélson Monte Liga Portugal · 2019 | 24 | €1.8M | €700k | fell |
| Diogo Queirós Liga Portugal · 2021 | 22 | €3.0M | €400k | fell |
| Egor Sorokin Premier Liga · 2021 | 26 | €1.8M | €1.5M | flat |
| Bart Nieuwkoop Eredivisie · 2021 | 25 | €2.2M | €3.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | FC Schalke 04 | RSC Anderlecht | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 2 Feb 2026 | RSC Anderlecht | FC Schalke 04 | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 25 Aug 2022 | Barça Atlètic | RSC Anderlecht | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Barça U19 | Barcelona B | Unknown | €500k |
| 28 Aug 2020 | ASPIRE FD | Barça U19 | €500k | €150k |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.