Igor Diveev

27 yrs · Centre-back · Russia
PFK CSKA Moskva · Premier Liga · Foot: right · Height: 194 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2029
Market value
€10.0M
Updated today
Estimated acquisition
€6.0M – €12.7M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€3.6M – €15.2M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€5.2M – €13.4M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€9.0M – €9.2M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€6.0M – €12.7M
Model value (performance-implied)€3.6M – €15.2M
Projected value (24 months)€5.2M – €13.4M
Dashed line: current market value (€10.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Igor Diveev's performance-implied value at EUR 3.6M-15.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 6.0M-12.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 5.2M-13.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 42

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceHigh75.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral26.8 years
Acquisition costNeutralest. €9.8M vs market €10.0M
Expected appreciationNeutral-8% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapNegativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationModerateleague coefficient 0.56
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €10.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2475 (92% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.14
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.08
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
76 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.56 (rank 10)
Team strength (Elo)
1503
Opponent strength
1354
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€5.2M – €13.4M

Trajectory drivers: relative output down 44% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +12% (IQR -24% to +61%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
25 (DEF)
Relative output kept
48%–200%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
72%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26PFK CSKA MoskvaPremier LigaCB16144053%200.130.08135414360.56
2025/26AO FK Zenit Sankt-PeterburgPremier LigaCB12103538%110.170.08133515970.56
2024/25PFK CSKA MoskvaPremier LigaCB26231386%510.230.14129314780.55
2023/24PFK CSKA MoskvaPremier LigaCB1086732%000.000.03128614030.49
2022/23PFK CSKA MoskvaPremier LigaCB20173964%210.160.10131514470.53
2021/22PFK CSKA MoskvaPremier LigaCB27239689%300.110.10135813630.52
2020/21PFK CSKA MoskvaPremier LigaCB23207077%220.170.12133013830.55
2019/20PFK CSKA MoskvaPremier LigaCB26229585%010.040.05140214470.63
2018/19PFK CSKA MoskvaPremier LigaCB1085432%000.000.03142115470.69
2018/19FK UfaPremier LigaCB2632%000.000.10153213180.69

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Russian CupAO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg311500—
2025/26Russian CupPFK CSKA Moskva29500—
2025/26Russian Super CupPFK CSKA Moskva190101511
2024/25Russian CupPFK CSKA Moskva1090010—
2023/24Russian CupPFK CSKA Moskva432900—
2023/24Russian Super CupPFK CSKA Moskva145001582
2022/23Russian CupPFK CSKA Moskva748200—
2021/22Russian CupPFK CSKA Moskva218020—
2020/21Uefa Europa LeaguePFK CSKA Moskva6529001517
2020/21Russian CupPFK CSKA Moskva327000—
2019/20Uefa Europa LeaguePFK CSKA Moskva6495101439
2019/20Russian CupPFK CSKA Moskva330010—
2018/19Russian CupFK Ufa112010—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Christian Luyindama
Jupiler Pro League · 2019
25€7.5M€5.5Mfell
Felipe
Liga Portugal · 2017
28€10.0M€20.0Mrose
Aderllan Santos
Liga Portugal · 2015
26€7.5M€3.5Mfell
Sebastián Coates
Liga Portugal · 2017
27€7.0M€15.0Mrose
Niklas Moisander
Eredivisie · 2013
28€6.5M€5.0Mfell
Georgiy Dzhikiya
Premier Liga · 2020
27€8.0M€8.0Mflat
Toby Alderweireld
Eredivisie · 2013
24€10.0M€15.0Mrose
Kevin Diks
Superliga · 2024
28€4.0M€5.0Mrose

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
11 Jan 2026CSKA MoscowZenit S-Pb€2.0M€9.0M
1 Jul 2019UfaCSKA Moscow€1.5M€3.5M
30 Jun 2019CSKA MoscowUfaFree / loan€3.5M
22 Feb 2019UfaCSKA MoscowFree / loan€400k
1 Jul 2018Ufa IIUfaUnknown€125k
1 Jan 2016Akademia UfaUfa IIUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.