
Igor Diveev
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Igor Diveev's performance-implied value at EUR 3.6M-15.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 6.0M-12.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 5.2M-13.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 42
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 75.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €9.8M vs market €10.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -8% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2475 (92% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.14
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.08
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 76 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1503
- Opponent strength
- 1354
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €5.2M – €13.4M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 44% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +12% (IQR -24% to +61%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 48%–200%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | PFK CSKA Moskva | Premier Liga | CB | 16 | 1440 | 53% | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.08 | 1354 | 1436 | 0.56 |
| 2025/26 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | CB | 12 | 1035 | 38% | 1 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.08 | 1335 | 1597 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | PFK CSKA Moskva | Premier Liga | CB | 26 | 2313 | 86% | 5 | 1 | 0.23 | 0.14 | 1293 | 1478 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | PFK CSKA Moskva | Premier Liga | CB | 10 | 867 | 32% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1286 | 1403 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | PFK CSKA Moskva | Premier Liga | CB | 20 | 1739 | 64% | 2 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.10 | 1315 | 1447 | 0.53 |
| 2021/22 | PFK CSKA Moskva | Premier Liga | CB | 27 | 2396 | 89% | 3 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.10 | 1358 | 1363 | 0.52 |
| 2020/21 | PFK CSKA Moskva | Premier Liga | CB | 23 | 2070 | 77% | 2 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.12 | 1330 | 1383 | 0.55 |
| 2019/20 | PFK CSKA Moskva | Premier Liga | CB | 26 | 2295 | 85% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 1402 | 1447 | 0.63 |
| 2018/19 | PFK CSKA Moskva | Premier Liga | CB | 10 | 854 | 32% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1421 | 1547 | 0.69 |
| 2018/19 | FK Ufa | Premier Liga | CB | 2 | 63 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1532 | 1318 | 0.69 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 3 | 115 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 2 | 95 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Russian Super Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1511 |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 10 | 900 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 4 | 329 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Super Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 1582 |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 7 | 482 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Russian Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 2 | 180 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | PFK CSKA Moskva | 6 | 529 | 0 | 0 | 1517 |
| 2020/21 | Russian Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | PFK CSKA Moskva | 6 | 495 | 1 | 0 | 1439 |
| 2019/20 | Russian Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 3 | 300 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Russian Cup | FK Ufa | 1 | 120 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Luyindama Jupiler Pro League · 2019 | 25 | €7.5M | €5.5M | fell |
| Felipe Liga Portugal · 2017 | 28 | €10.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Aderllan Santos Liga Portugal · 2015 | 26 | €7.5M | €3.5M | fell |
| Sebastián Coates Liga Portugal · 2017 | 27 | €7.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Niklas Moisander Eredivisie · 2013 | 28 | €6.5M | €5.0M | fell |
| Georgiy Dzhikiya Premier Liga · 2020 | 27 | €8.0M | €8.0M | flat |
| Toby Alderweireld Eredivisie · 2013 | 24 | €10.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Kevin Diks Superliga · 2024 | 28 | €4.0M | €5.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Jan 2026 | CSKA Moscow | Zenit S-Pb | €2.0M | €9.0M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Ufa | CSKA Moscow | €1.5M | €3.5M |
| 30 Jun 2019 | CSKA Moscow | Ufa | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 22 Feb 2019 | Ufa | CSKA Moscow | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Ufa II | Ufa | Unknown | €125k |
| 1 Jan 2016 | Akademia Ufa | Ufa II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.