Tamerlan Musaev
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Tamerlan Musaev's performance-implied value at EUR 1.3M-7.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.1M-3.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.1M-4.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.75x the positional average in the league (1415 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 52
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 48.5th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €2.1M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -15% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1415 (52% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.51
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.38
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 49 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1436
- Opponent strength
- 1321
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.1M – €4.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 22 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -2% (IQR -44% to +86%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1415 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 20 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–104%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 50%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | PFK CSKA Moskva | Premier Liga | ST | 29 | 1415 | 52% | 4 | 4 | 0.51 | 0.38 | 1321 | 1436 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | PFK CSKA Moskva | Premier Liga | ST | 30 | 2010 | 74% | 7 | 3 | 0.45 | 0.36 | 1280 | 1478 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | FK Baltika | Premier Liga | ST | 18 | 919 | 34% | 2 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.50 | 1334 | 1187 | 0.49 |
| 2023/24 | PFK CSKA Moskva | Premier Liga | ST | 12 | 652 | 24% | 5 | 3 | 1.10 | 0.60 | 1286 | 1403 | 0.49 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 10 | 542 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Russian Super Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 1 | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1511 |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 13 | 497 | 3 | 2 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | FK Baltika | 7 | 477 | 2 | 2 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 5 | 158 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albert Gudmundsson Eredivisie · 2022 | 25 | €2.4M | €30.0M | rose |
| Amr Warda Super League 1 · 2019 | 26 | €2.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Ally Samatta Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 26 | €3.0M | €9.5M | rose |
| Didier Lamkel Zé Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 25 | €4.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Ezequiel Ponce Premier Liga · 2020 | 23 | €3.2M | €5.0M | rose |
| Nikola Stojiljkovic Liga Portugal · 2017 | 25 | €3.0M | €800k | fell |
| Andrija Pavlovic Superliga · 2018 | 25 | €1.3M | €1.6M | rose |
| Fabián Castillo Super Lig · 2017 | 25 | €2.5M | €1.8M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jan 2024 | Baltika | CSKA Moscow | €300k | €700k |
| 31 Dec 2021 | KamAZ | Baltika | Free / loan | €200k |
| 7 Sept 2021 | Baltika | KamAZ | Free / loan | €200k |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Volga Uljanovsk | Baltika | Free / loan | €200k |
| 17 Feb 2021 | Baltika | Volga Uljanovsk | Free / loan | €200k |
| 5 Feb 2020 | Arsenal Tula II | Baltika | Free / loan | €125k |
| 10 Jul 2019 | Anzhi II | Arsenal Tula II | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jan 2019 | Anzhi U19 | Anzhi II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 9 Mar 2018 | YM - Torpedo | Anzhi U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 8 Mar 2017 | Ak. Loko U17 | YM - Torpedo | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 24 Aug 2015 | CSKA U17 | Ak. Loko U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.