Albert Gudmundsson
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Albert Gudmundsson's performance-implied value at EUR 5.7M-19.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 4.4M-11.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.3M-8.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.86x the positional average in the league (2262 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 21
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 81.2th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €7.9M vs market €12.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -49% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2262 (66% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.36
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.35
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 81 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1506
- Opponent strength
- 1473
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.3M – €8.7M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 29 pts; team strength down (-74 Elo); role change SS -> LW.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -62% (IQR -69% to -51%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | ACF Fiorentina | Serie A | LW | 33 | 2262 | 66% | 5 | 4 | 0.36 | 0.35 | 1473 | 1506 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | ACF Fiorentina | Serie A | SS | 24 | 1279 | 37% | 6 | 2 | 0.56 | 0.50 | 1516 | 1580 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Genoa CFC | Serie A | SS | 35 | 3023 | 88% | 14 | 4 | 0.54 | 0.80 | 1498 | 1445 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | RW | 19 | 1091 | 36% | 4 | 1 | 0.41 | 0.28 | 1292 | 1496 | 0.60 |
| 2021/22 | Genoa CFC | Serie A | RW | 12 | 604 | 18% | 1 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.35 | 1461 | 1325 | 0.89 |
| 2020/21 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | AM | 26 | 1976 | 65% | 7 | 4 | 0.50 | 0.30 | 1358 | 1557 | 0.56 |
| 2019/20 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | SS | 4 | 119 | 5% | 0 | 1 | 0.76 | 0.43 | 1342 | 1542 | 0.62 |
| 2018/19 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | RW | 25 | 1311 | 43% | 6 | 4 | 0.69 | 0.43 | 1369 | 1459 | 0.61 |
| 2017/18 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | RW | 9 | 176 | 6% | 0 | 3 | 1.53 | 0.24 | 1232 | 1636 | 0.59 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | ACF Fiorentina | 2 | 115 | 1 | 0 | 1212 |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | ACF Fiorentina | 1 | 24 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | ACF Fiorentina | 1 | 15 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Genoa CFC | 2 | 134 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 91 | 0 | 0 | 1534 |
| 2021/22 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 33 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | AZ Alkmaar | 5 | 365 | 2 | 0 | 1570 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 114 | 2 | 0 | 1523 |
| 2020/21 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 80 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | AZ Alkmaar | 4 | 166 | 1 | 0 | 1385 |
| 2018/19 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 102 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Knvb Beker | PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 119 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matteo Politano Serie A · 2024 | 31 | €13.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Moi Gómez Laliga · 2023 | 29 | €10.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Younès Belhanda Ligue 1 · 2017 | 27 | €9.0M | €5.5M | fell |
| Michael Gregoritsch Bundesliga · 2023 | 29 | €8.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Ricardo Álvarez Serie A · 2014 | 26 | €16.5M | €7.5M | fell |
| Éder Ligue 1 · 2017 | 30 | €5.0M | €1.7M | fell |
| Steve Mounié Ligue 1 · 2024 | 30 | €6.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Sheraldo Becker Bundesliga · 2022 | 27 | €7.0M | €10.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Genoa | Fiorentina | €16.8M | €18.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Fiorentina | Genoa | Free / loan | €18.0M |
| 16 Aug 2024 | Genoa | Fiorentina | Free / loan | €30.0M |
| 31 Jan 2022 | AZ Alkmaar | Genoa | €1.5M | €3.0M |
| 14 Aug 2018 | PSV | AZ Alkmaar | €1.8M | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | PSV U21 | PSV | Unknown | €700k |
| 19 Jul 2015 | Heerenveen U19 | PSV U21 | Unknown | €50k |
| 5 Sept 2013 | KR U19 | Heerenveen U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.