Aurelio Oehlers
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Aurelio Oehlers's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.30x the positional average in the league (1538 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 81
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 2.1th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €394k vs market €500k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +10% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 14% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1538 (50% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.29
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.51
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 2 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1101
- Opponent strength
- 1339
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 14%
- Resale range (24m)
- €339k – €877k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -11% to +38%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1538 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 73%–122%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 61%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Volendam | Eredivisie | RW | 33 | 1538 | 50% | 4 | 1 | 0.29 | 0.51 | 1339 | 1101 | 0.43 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | FC Volendam | 4 | 336 | 2 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sævar Atli Magnússon Superliga · 2023 | 23 | €450k | €1.8M | rose |
| Julian Kristoffersen Superliga · 2019 | 22 | €400k | €400k | flat |
| Owura Edwards Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 22 | €350k | €350k | flat |
| Luke McCowan Scottish Premiership · 2022 | 25 | €350k | €600k | rose |
| Souleymane Coulibaly Scottish Premiership · 2017 | 23 | €350k | €200k | fell |
| Panagiotis Tzimas Super League 1 · 2024 | 23 | €450k | €450k | flat |
| Abdulrahman Taiwo Superliga · 2022 | 24 | €350k | €450k | rose |
| Gustav Marcussen Superliga · 2020 | 22 | €400k | €250k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Jul 2024 | Utrecht U21 | FC Volendam | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Utrecht U18 | Utrecht U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Utrecht Youth | Utrecht U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Ajax Youth | Utrecht Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | ASC Waterw. Yth | Ajax Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.