Luke McCowan
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Luke McCowan's performance-implied value at EUR 1.2M-4.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-1.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.62x the positional average in the league (1169 minutes, league coefficient 0.31). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 59
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 53.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €870k vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -37% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1169 (39% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.15
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.14
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 53 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1406
- Opponent strength
- 1178
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €531k – €1.6M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 54% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -42% (IQR -53% to -8%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1169 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 10 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–107%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 80%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Celtic FC | Scottish Premiership | CM | 28 | 1169 | 39% | 1 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.14 | 1178 | 1406 | 0.31 |
| 2024/25 | Celtic FC | Scottish Premiership | CM | 29 | 1164 | 39% | 5 | 5 | 0.77 | 0.25 | 1213 | 1512 | 0.34 |
| 2024/25 | Dundee FC | Scottish Premiership | CM | 3 | 270 | 9% | 2 | 1 | 1.00 | 0.42 | 1220 | 1122 | 0.34 |
| 2023/24 | Dundee FC | Scottish Premiership | CM | 32 | 2814 | 95% | 9 | 5 | 0.45 | 0.46 | 1260 | 1153 | 0.34 |
| 2021/22 | Dundee FC | Scottish Premiership | LW | 24 | 1486 | 50% | 4 | 1 | 0.30 | 0.50 | 1321 | 1124 | 0.50 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | Celtic FC | 4 | 244 | 1 | 2 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Celtic FC | 4 | 162 | 1 | 0 | 1539 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Celtic FC | 1 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1438 |
| 2024/25 | Scottish Fa Cup | Celtic FC | 5 | 187 | 1 | 2 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Celtic FC | 3 | 47 | 0 | 0 | 1614 |
| 2023/24 | Scottish Fa Cup | Dundee FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Scottish Fa Cup | Dundee FC | 3 | 153 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volodymyr Shepelev Premier Liga · 2024 | 27 | €1.8M | €700k | fell |
| Lucas Villafañez Super League 1 · 2021 | 30 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
| Vladyslav Kabaev Premier Liga · 2023 | 28 | €1.8M | €4.0M | rose |
| Thomas Murg Super League 1 · 2021 | 27 | €2.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Vyacheslav Churko Premier Liga · 2023 | 30 | €700k | €350k | fell |
| Yegor Nazaryna Premier Liga · 2024 | 27 | €1.5M | €2.5M | rose |
| Vladlen Yurchenko Premier Liga · 2023 | 29 | €900k | €600k | fell |
| André Simões Super League 1 · 2019 | 30 | €2.0M | €1.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Aug 2024 | Dundee FC | Celtic | €1.2M | €600k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Ayr United | Dundee FC | Free / loan | €325k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Ayr United U20 | Ayr United | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 May 2017 | Annbank United | Ayr United U20 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2017 | Ayr United U20 | Annbank United | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 May 2016 | Lugar | Ayr United U20 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.