Josué Homawoo
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Josué Homawoo's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.7M-1.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-2.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 82
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 24th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €891k vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -30% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1716 (64% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.03
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 24 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1341
- Opponent strength
- 1372
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €741k – €2.3M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -40% (IQR -52% to -17%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1716 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 76 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 67%–160%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Standard Liège | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 23 | 1716 | 64% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1372 | 1341 | 0.65 |
| 2019/20 | FC Nantes | Ligue 1 | CB | 1 | 45 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1333 | 1414 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Europe Play Offs | Standard Liège | 7 | 467 | 0 | 1 | 1333 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benoît Poulain Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 29 | €2.0M | €2.5M | rose |
| Tiago Pinto Super Lig · 2017 | 29 | €3.0M | €700k | fell |
| Kevin Wimmer Jupiler Pro League · 2020 | 28 | €2.4M | €1.0M | fell |
| Maracás Liga Portugal · 2022 | 28 | €900k | €1.0M | flat |
| Dragoș Grigore Ligue 1 · 2015 | 29 | €2.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Melli Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 29 | €1.2M | €600k | fell |
| Toni Borevković Liga Portugal · 2024 | 27 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Vance Sikov Premier Liga · 2013 | 28 | €1.4M | €750k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | FC Dinamo | Standard Liège | Free / loan | €900k |
| 16 Jul 2023 | Red Star FC | FC Dinamo | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Lorient B | Red Star FC | Unknown | €150k |
| 5 Oct 2020 | FC Nantes | Lorient B | Unknown | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | FC Nantes B | FC Nantes | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | FC Nantes U19 | FC Nantes B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.