Emin Bayram
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Emin Bayram's performance-implied value at EUR 1.4M-4.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.9M-5.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.2M-6.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 63
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 43.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €3.6M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +3% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2592 (96% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.17
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.15
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 44 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1348
- Opponent strength
- 1384
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.2M – €6.9M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 40 pts; relative output up 88% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +15% (IQR -11% to +64%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 76 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 67%–160%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | KVC Westerlo | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 29 | 2592 | 96% | 3 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.15 | 1384 | 1348 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | KVC Westerlo | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 21 | 1503 | 56% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 1389 | 1322 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | KVC Westerlo | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 23 | 1976 | 73% | 1 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.15 | 1384 | 1293 | 0.63 |
| 2022/23 | Galatasaray | Super Lig | CB | 7 | 425 | 13% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1285 | 1535 | 0.50 |
| 2020/21 | Galatasaray | Super Lig | CB | 2 | 23 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1246 | 1425 | 0.37 |
| 2019/20 | Galatasaray | Super Lig | CB | 4 | 141 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1332 | 1384 | 0.45 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Europe Play Offs | KVC Westerlo | 9 | 730 | 1 | 0 | 1376 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Galatasaray | 1 | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1357 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timo Letschert Eredivisie · 2016 | 23 | €2.5M | €2.5M | flat |
| Rafa Soares Liga Portugal · 2017 | 22 | €2.0M | €3.5M | rose |
| Aurélio Buta Jupiler Pro League · 2020 | 23 | €4.8M | €3.0M | fell |
| Dmitriy Zhivoglyadov Premier Liga · 2018 | 24 | €2.0M | €2.2M | flat |
| Nair Tiknizyan Premier Liga · 2023 | 24 | €2.5M | €4.0M | rose |
| Dennis Hadzikadunic Premier Liga · 2021 | 23 | €2.5M | €3.0M | rose |
| Pedro Rebocho Ligue 1 · 2019 | 24 | €6.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Georgiy Dzhikiya Premier Liga · 2017 | 24 | €3.5M | €8.5M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2024 | Galatasaray | KVC Westerlo | €4.0M | €4.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | KVC Westerlo | Galatasaray | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 6 Sept 2023 | Galatasaray | KVC Westerlo | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Boluspor | Galatasaray | Free / loan | €675k |
| 1 Feb 2021 | Galatasaray | Boluspor | Free / loan | €500k |
| 18 Nov 2019 | Galatasaray U17 | Galatasaray | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 13 May 2019 | Galatasaray U16 | Galatasaray U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Galatasaray Yth | Galatasaray U16 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.