Göktan Gürpüz
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Göktan Gürpüz's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-2.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.1M-4.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.08x the positional average in the league (1940 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 65
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 4.3th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €1.8M vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +1% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1940 (63% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.28
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.42
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 4 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1161
- Opponent strength
- 1285
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.1M – €4.0M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -10% (IQR -30% to +66%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 79%–133%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 58%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Gençlerbirliği Spor Kulübü | Super Lig | RW | 29 | 1940 | 63% | 0 | 6 | 0.28 | 0.43 | 1285 | 1160 | 0.40 |
| 2023/24 | Trabzonspor | Super Lig | LW | 5 | 22 | 1% | 1 | 0 | 4.09 | 0.47 | 1332 | 1379 | 0.45 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Tetteh Super Lig · 2021 | 24 | €2.3M | €1.5M | fell |
| Altin Zeqiri Super Lig · 2024 | 24 | €1.8M | €1.0M | fell |
| Braian Samudio Super Lig · 2021 | 26 | €2.5M | €1.8M | fell |
| Georges Mikautadze Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 22 | €2.2M | €15.0M | rose |
| Maximiliano Lovera Super League 1 · 2023 | 24 | €800k | €700k | flat |
| Andri Gudjohnsen Superliga · 2024 | 22 | €2.7M | €2.8M | flat |
| Nicolao Cardoso Super League 1 · 2015 | 24 | €750k | €700k | flat |
| Haji Wright Superliga · 2021 | 23 | €800k | €6.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Genclerbirligi | Trabzonspor | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 31 Jul 2025 | Trabzonspor | Genclerbirligi | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Karagümrük | Trabzonspor | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 21 Aug 2024 | Trabzonspor | Karagümrük | Free / loan | €300k |
| 19 Jul 2023 | B. Dortmund II | Trabzonspor | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | B. Dortmund U19 | B. Dortmund II | Unknown | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | B. Dortmund U17 | B. Dortmund U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Dortmund Yth. | B. Dortmund U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Schalke 04 Yth. | Dortmund Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Hamborn 07 Yth. | Schalke 04 Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.