Jakov Basic
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jakov Basic's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 82
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 13.3th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €193k vs market €600k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -30% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1021 (38% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.09
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 13 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1192
- Opponent strength
- 1170
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €233k – €542k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 48 pts; relative output down 40% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -59% (IQR -70% to -35%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1021 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 11 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 108%–176%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 82%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Zorya Lugansk | Premier Liga | CB | 18 | 1021 | 38% | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 1170 | 1192 | 0.25 |
| 2024/25 | Zorya Lugansk | Premier Liga | CB | 27 | 2306 | 85% | 2 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.12 | 1206 | 1182 | 0.28 |
| 2023/24 | Zorya Lugansk | Premier Liga | DM | 14 | 1204 | 45% | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 1288 | 1235 | 0.34 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Ukrainian Cup | Zorya Lugansk | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamine Gassama Super Lig · 2021 | 32 | €400k | €100k | fell |
| Charles Dunne Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 31 | €300k | €100k | fell |
| Stephen O'Donnell Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 31 | €450k | €100k | fell |
| Mykhaylo Shershen Premier Liga · 2023 | 28 | €300k | €400k | rose |
| Roman Goncharenko Premier Liga · 2023 | 30 | €400k | €250k | fell |
| Oguz Ceylan Super Lig · 2021 | 31 | €850k | €275k | fell |
| Aristotelis Karasalidis Super League 1 · 2021 | 30 | €350k | €250k | fell |
| Jamie Hamill Scottish Premiership · 2015 | 29 | €500k | €250k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Feb 2024 | NK Rudes | Zorya Lugansk | €100k | €200k |
| 4 Jul 2023 | Slaven Belupo | NK Rudes | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | NK Rudes | Slaven Belupo | Free / loan | €350k |
| 31 Aug 2021 | Hrv Dragovoljac | NK Rudes | Free / loan | €300k |
| 12 Jul 2021 | NK Dugopolje | Hrv Dragovoljac | Unknown | €300k |
| 26 Jul 2019 | Hajduk Split II | NK Dugopolje | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 18 Feb 2019 | Boston Bolts | Hajduk Split II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2018 | Reading United | Boston Bolts | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.