Gerson Sousa
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Gerson Sousa's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-0.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.84x the positional average in the league (914 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 86
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 0.6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €437k vs market €700k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -6% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 914 (39% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.10
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.33
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 1 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1169
- Opponent strength
- 1273
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €409k – €1.1M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +20% (IQR -24% to +48%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 914 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 19 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 99%–112%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 47%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Athlitiki Enosi Kifisias | Super League 1 | RW | 20 | 914 | 39% | 0 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.33 | 1273 | 1169 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | CF Estrela Amadora | Liga Portugal | RW | 6 | 58 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.62 | 1351 | 1152 | 0.51 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | Athlitiki Enosi Kifisias | 4 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oğulcan Çağlayan Super Lig · 2020 | 24 | €475k | €625k | rose |
| Wilfried Kanga Super Lig · 2021 | 23 | €400k | €3.0M | rose |
| Derensili Sanches Fernandes Eredivisie · 2024 | 23 | €450k | €900k | rose |
| Søren Tengstedt Superliga · 2023 | 23 | €600k | €800k | rose |
| Nikolaos Ioannidis Super League 1 · 2017 | 23 | €600k | €150k | fell |
| Amido Baldé Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 24 | €900k | €300k | fell |
| Edwin Gyasi Eredivisie · 2016 | 25 | €550k | €600k | flat |
| Ayub Masika Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 23 | €500k | €500k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jul 2025 | Benfica B | Kifisia | Free / loan | €1.3M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Estrela Amadora | Benfica B | Free / loan | €1.3M |
| 3 Feb 2025 | Benfica B | Estrela Amadora | Free / loan | €1.3M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Benfica U23 | Benfica B | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Benfica U19 | Benfica U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Benfica U17 | Benfica U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Benfica U15 | Benfica U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Benfica Yth | Benfica U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.